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Mathematical modelling on COVID-19 transmission impacts with preventive measures: a case study of Tanzania
Journal of Biological Dynamics ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-29 , DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1823494
Abdul-rahman J. Mumbu 1 , Alfred K. Hugo 2
Affiliation  

The outbreak of COVID-19 was first experienced in Wuhan City, China, during December 2019 before it rapidly spread over globally. This paper has proposed a mathematical model for studying its transmission dynamics in the presence of face mask wearing and hospitalization services of human population in Tanzania. Disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined and subsequently their local and global stabilities were carried out. The trace-determinant approach was used in the local stability of disease-free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique was used to determine the global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number, R 0 , was determined in which its numerical results revealed that, in the presence of face masks wearing and medication services or hospitalization as preventive measure for its transmission, R 0 = 0.698 while in their absence R 0 = 3.8 . This supports its analytical solution that the disease-free equilibrium point E 0 is asymptotically stable whenever R 0 < 1 , while endemic equilibrium point E is globally asymptotically stable for R 0 > 1 . Therefore, this paper proves the necessity of face masks wearing and hospitalization services to COVID-19 patients to contain the disease spread to the population.

更新日期:2020-09-29
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