Abstract Delayed maturity and low reproductive rate make raptors naturally sensitive to high mortality rates, yet a wide variety of human-related threats negatively affect their population dynamics and persistence over time. We modelled the variability in the proximate causes of mortality associated with six species of large migratory raptors characterized by different ecological traits. We tested the hypothesis that species-specific mortality signals occur owing to differential exposure to threats in space and time. We relied on an unprecedently large dataset of ring (band) recovery (31,269 records) over a period of >100 years. Our findings suggested that mortality of these birds has declined dramatically since the late 1970s. We found species-specific seasonal patterns of mortality, with higher mortality rates during early life-stages. For Black Kite, Common Buzzard, and Osprey, mortality increased with distance travelled and decreased with distance from migratory bottlenecks. Human-related mortality was higher than natural mortality (47% vs 5.6%), but after 1979 indirect anthropogenic factors increased, while direct ones decreased. Raptors showed differential specific exposure to mortality causes (direct human: Honey Buzzard, Marsh Harrier; indirect human: Common Buzzard, Black Kite; direct and indirect human: Osprey; natural: Montagu's Harrier). Conservation efforts and international laws have helped lower mortality caused directly by humans, but new emerging human-related threats are impacting migratory raptors and call for advanced conservation efforts. In a fast-changing world, anticipating future threats is key to stemming losses and boosting future preservation.

中文翻译：

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一个世纪以来六种大型迁徙猛禽死亡的近因发生变化

摘要 延迟成熟和低繁殖率使猛禽自然对高死亡率敏感，但随着时间的推移，各种与人类有关的威胁会对它们的种群动态和持久性产生负面影响。我们模拟了与具有不同生态特征的六种大型迁徙猛禽相关的死亡近因的变异性。我们测试了以下假设，即物种特定的死亡率信号是由于空间和时间上的威胁暴露程度不同而产生的。在超过 100 年的时间里，我们依赖于前所未有的大的环（带）恢复数据集（31,269 条记录）。我们的研究结果表明，自 1970 年代后期以来，这些鸟类的死亡率急剧下降。我们发现了特定物种的季节性死亡率模式，在生命早期阶段死亡率较高。对于 Black Kite、Common Buzzard 和 Osprey，死亡率随着旅行距离的增加而增加，随着与迁徙瓶颈的距离增加而降低。人为死亡率高于自然死亡率（47% 对 5.6%），但 1979 年后间接人为因素增加，而直接人为因素减少。猛禽表现出对死亡原因的不同特定暴露（直接人类：蜂蜜秃鹰，沼泽鹞；间接人类：普通秃鹰，黑风筝；直接和间接人类：鱼鹰；自然：蒙塔古鹞）。保护工作和国际法有助于降低人类直接造成的死亡率，但新出现的与人类相关的威胁正在影响迁徙猛禽，并呼吁采取进一步的保护工作。在瞬息万变的世界中，预测未来威胁是遏制损失和促进未来保护的关键。