Small- and intermediate-size pelagic fisheries are highly impacted by environmental variability and climate change. Their wide geographical distribution and high mobility makes them more likely to shift their distribution under climate change. Here, we explore the potential impact of different climate change scenarios on the four main commercial pelagic species in the North-East Atlantic (NEA): Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou). We used a process-based fisheries model (SS-DBEM), where all the target species were exploited at their maximum sustainable yield (MSY), to project future potential catches under a high- and low-future-greenhouse-gas scenario (RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively). Two ocean biogeochemical models (GDFL and MEDUSA) were used to force the environmental conditions. Mackerel and sprat are projected to have increases in a potential catch under both scenarios. Herring and blue whiting are projected to increase under the RCP2.6, but future projections under RCP8.5 show mixed responses with decreases or no changes forecasted. Overall, the potential catch is projected to increase in the northern area of the NEA but is projected to decrease in the southern area. These projected changes are mainly driven by changes in temperature and primary production. Shifts in the distribution of pelagic resources may destabilize existing international agreements on sharing of straddling resources as exemplified by the dispute in sharing of quota for Atlantic mackerel. Novel climate-ready policy approaches considering full species distribution are needed to complement current stock-based approaches.

中小型中上层渔业受到环境变化和气候变化的严重影响。它们广泛的地理分布和高流动性使他们更有可能在气候变化下改变其分布。在这里，我们探讨了不同气候变化情景对东北大西洋（NEA）四种主要商业浮游鱼类的潜在影响：大西洋鲭鱼（Scomber scombrus），欧洲鲱（Sprattus sprattus），大西洋鲱（Clupea harengus）和蓝鳕（Micromesistius poutassou）。我们使用了基于过程的渔业模型（SS-DBEM），在该模型中，所有目标物种均以其最大可持续产量（MSY）进行开采，以预测在高，低未来温室气体情景（RCP）下的未来潜在捕捞量分别为2.6和8.5）。两种海洋生物地球化学模型（GDFL和MEDUSA）用于强制环境条件。预计在两种情况下，鲭鱼和西鲱的潜在捕获量都会增加。在RCP2.6下，鲱鱼和蓝鳕鱼预计会增加，但在RCP8.5下，未来的预测显示出不同的反应，减少或没有变化。总体而言，NEA北部地区的潜在捕获量预计会增加，而南部地区的潜在捕获量预计会下降。这些预计的变化主要是由温度和初级生产的变化所驱动。中上层资源分配的变化可能会破坏现有的有关跨界资源共享的国际协议的稳定，例如共享大西洋鲭鱼配额的争端就是例证。需要新的考虑全物种分布的气候就绪政策方法来补充当前基于种群的方法。