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Realised rather than fundamental thermal niches predict site occupancy: implications for climate change forecasting
Journal of Animal Ecology ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-12 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13358
Brigitte Braschler 1, 2 , Grant A. Duffy 3 , Erika Nortje 1 , Suzaan Kritzinger‐Klopper 1 , Dorette Plessis 1 , Natasha Karenyi 1 , Rachel I. Leihy 3 , Steven L. Chown 1, 3
Affiliation  

Thermal performance traits are regularly used to make forecasts of the responses of ectotherms to anthropogenic environmental change, but such forecasts do not always differentiate between fundamental and realised thermal niches. Here we determine the relative extents to which variation in the fundamental and realised thermal niches accounts for current variation in species abundance and occupancy and assess the effects of niche-choice on future-climate response estimations. We investigated microclimate and macroclimate temperatures alongside abundance, occupancy, critical thermal limits, and foraging activity of 52 ant species (accounting for > 95% individuals collected) from a regional assemblage from across the Western Cape Province, South Africa, between 2003 and 2014. Capability of a species to occupy sites experiencing the most extreme temperatures, coupled with breadth of realised niche, explained most deviance in occupancy (up to 75%), while foraging temperature range and body mass explained up to 50.5% of observed variation in mean species abundance. When realised niches are used to forecast responses to climate change, large positive and negative effects among species are predicted under future conditions, in contrast to the forecasts of minimal impacts on all species that are indicated by fundamental niche predictions.

中文翻译:

实现而不是基本的热利基预测站点占用:对气候变化预测的影响

热性能特征经常用于预测变温动物对人为环境变化的响应,但这种预测并不总是区分基本和已实现的热生态位。在这里,我们确定了基本和已实现的热生态位的变化在多大程度上解释了物种丰度和占有率的当前变化,并评估了生态位选择对未来气候响应估计的影响。2003 年至 2014 年间,我们调查了来自南非西开普省的区域组合的 52 种蚂蚁物种(占收集到的个体的 95% 以上)的小气候和大气候温度以及丰度、占有率、临界热极限和觅食活动。一个物种占据经历最极端温度的地点的能力,加上已实现的生态位的广度,解释了占用率的最大偏差(高达 75%),而觅食温度范围和体重解释了平均物种中观察到的高达 50.5% 的变化丰富。当使用已实现的生态位来预测对气候变化的响应时,在未来条件下可以预测物种之间的巨大正面和负面影响,这与基本生态位预测所表明的对所有物种影响最小的预测相反。
更新日期:2020-10-12
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