Pressures on resources and climate change are likely to strongly impact the availability of water, which directly affects agricultural systems. To estimate these impacts, we develop a prospective approach combining an agricultural supply side economic model and a crop model. We extend previous work by incorporating water resource constraints and apply our model to a large part of the French agricultural sector under three climate scenarios over 2010–2010. Results indicate that, at a given water price, potential change in irrigation water demand would differ strongly according to the region concerned and the scenario applied. In France as a whole, irrigation increases in all scenarios, by 60% under the intermediate scenario, by 40% under the least extreme scenario, and by 20% under the toughest scenario. Differentiating the northern and southern regions, the relative increase is more pronounced in the north, while demand in the south significantly increases under the intermediate scenario and decreases under the toughest scenario. When considering autonomous adaptation of farming systems to climate change, agricultural income in northern regions is likely to be negatively affected to a greater extent than in southern regions.

资源和气候变化的压力可能会严重影响水的可利用性，这直接影响农业系统。为了估算这些影响，我们开发了一种结合了农业供应方经济模型和作物模型的前瞻性方法。我们通过纳入水资源限制来扩展先前的工作，并将我们的模型应用于2010-2010年三种气候情景下的法国大部分农业部门。结果表明，在给定的水价下，灌溉水需求的潜在变化将根据相关地区和所采用的方案而有很大差异。在整个法国，灌溉在所有情况下均增加，在中间情况下增加60％，在最不极端情况下增加40％，在最困难情况下增加20％。区别北部和南部地区，北部的相对增长更为明显，而在中间情景下，南部的需求显着增加，而在最困难的情况下，南部的需求则减少。当考虑使耕作制度适应气候变化时，与南部地区相比，北部地区的农业收入受到的负面影响可能更大。