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Trend analysis and forecasting of the Gökırmak River streamflow (Turkey)
Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1515/ohs-2020-0021 Gökhan Arslan 1 , Semih Kale 2 , Adem Yavuz Sönmez 3
Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 , DOI: 10.1515/ohs-2020-0021 Gökhan Arslan 1 , Semih Kale 2 , Adem Yavuz Sönmez 3
Affiliation
Abstract The objective of this paper is to determine the trend and to estimate the streamflow of the Gökırmak River. The possible trend of the streamflow was forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Time series and trend analyses were performed using monthly streamflow data for the period between 1999 and 2014. Pettitt’s change point analysis was employed to detect the time of change for historical streamflow time series. Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho tests were also conducted. The results of the change point analysis determined the change point as 2008. The time series analysis showed that the streamflow of the river had a decreasing trend from the past to the present. Results of the trend analysis forecasted a decreasing trend for the streamflow in the future. The decreasing trend in the streamflow may be related to climate change. This paper provides preliminary knowledge of the streamflow trend for the Gökırmak River.
中文翻译:
Gökırmak 河流流量的趋势分析和预测(土耳其)
摘要 本文的目的是确定趋势并估计 Gökırmak 河的流量。使用自回归综合移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型预测水流的可能趋势。时间序列和趋势分析使用 1999 年至 2014 年期间的月流量数据进行。Pettitt 的变化点分析用于检测历史流量时间序列的变化时间。还进行了 Kendall 的 tau 和 Spearman 的 rho 测试。变化点分析结果确定变化点为2008年。时间序列分析表明,河流流量从过去到现在呈下降趋势。趋势分析结果预测未来流量呈下降趋势。流量的减少趋势可能与气候变化有关。本文提供了 Gökırmak 河水流趋势的初步知识。
更新日期:2020-09-01
中文翻译:
Gökırmak 河流流量的趋势分析和预测(土耳其)
摘要 本文的目的是确定趋势并估计 Gökırmak 河的流量。使用自回归综合移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型预测水流的可能趋势。时间序列和趋势分析使用 1999 年至 2014 年期间的月流量数据进行。Pettitt 的变化点分析用于检测历史流量时间序列的变化时间。还进行了 Kendall 的 tau 和 Spearman 的 rho 测试。变化点分析结果确定变化点为2008年。时间序列分析表明,河流流量从过去到现在呈下降趋势。趋势分析结果预测未来流量呈下降趋势。流量的减少趋势可能与气候变化有关。本文提供了 Gökırmak 河水流趋势的初步知识。