Large-scale implementation of forest-based biofuel production will have an impact on biomass prices, something which in turn will affect biofuel production costs. The profitability of emerging biofuel production technologies is usually assessed using techno-economic or market approaches. While techno-economic approaches have a detailed description of technologies within plant-level or supply chain system boundaries, they build on exogenously given static biomass prices. Conversely, market approaches have a consistent description of the economic system including market interactions for prices within local or national boundaries, but they generally lack technological depth. This paper combines these two approaches using an iterative framework for a case study optimising the production cost of liquefied biomethane (LBG) using different configurations of sawmill-integrated biomass gasification.

Cost estimates are developed using system boundaries surrounding a LBG production plant, and the Swedish national borders, reflecting the plant-owner and policymaker perspectives, respectively. The results show that different plant configurations are favoured depending on the choice between minimising the biofuel production cost for the plant-owner or for the policymaker. Market dynamics simulated by the iterative procedure show that a direct policy support of 36–56 EUR/MWh would be needed to sustain large-scale LBG production, which is 12–31% higher than the necessary policy support estimated based on static biomass prices.

大规模实施以森林为基础的生物燃料生产将对生物质价格产生影响，进而影响生物燃料生产成本。新兴生物燃料生产技术的获利能力通常使用技术经济或市场方法进行评估。尽管技术经济方法对工厂级别或供应链系统范围内的技术进行了详细描述，但它们建立在外生给定的静态生物量价格基础上。相反，市场方法对经济体系具有一致的描述，包括地方或国家边界内价格的市场相互作用，但它们通常缺乏技术深度。

成本估算是根据LBG生产工厂周围的系统边界以及瑞典的国界来制定的，分别反映了工厂所有者和决策者的观点。结果表明，根据在为工厂所有者或决策者降低生物燃料生产成本之间进行选择之间的选择，可以采用不同的工厂配置。迭代过程模拟的市场动态表明，维持大规模的LBG生产需要36-56欧元/兆瓦时的直接政策支持，这比基于静态生物质价格估算的必要政策支持高出12-31％。