Biological invasions and climate change are important drivers of biodiversity loss. In freshwater ecosystems, golden and zebra mussels are two highly aggressive invasive species that have caused ecological and economic damages in South and North America, respectively. Here, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to investigate the invasive potential of golden and zebra mussels in present and future scenarios of global warming in the New World. We found two main patterns in the distribution of suitable areas for golden and zebra mussels. First, the distribution of potentially suitable areas, both in present and future scenarios, is different between mussel species: zebra mussel has areas that are more suitable in temperate regions, while suitable areas for golden mussel are concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions. Second, suitable habitats for golden mussel will increase more in future global warming scenarios compared to suitable habitats for zebra mussel. Indeed, there are experimental indications that zebra mussel has a lower tolerance to high temperatures compared to golden mussel, which is in agreement with our findings. We recommend that the future monitoring of both golden and zebra mussels in the New World should consider areas of highest thermic suitability for current and future scenarios.

中文翻译：

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金贻贝和斑马贻贝在新世界当前和未来气候情景中的入侵潜力

生物入侵和气候变化是生物多样性丧失的重要驱动因素。在淡水生态系统中，金贻贝和斑马贻贝是两种极具侵略性的入侵物种，分别在南美洲和北美洲造成了生态和经济破坏。在这里，我们使用生态位模型 (ENM) 来研究金贻贝和斑马贻贝在新世界当前和未来全球变暖的情况下的入侵潜力。我们发现金贻贝和斑马贻贝的适宜区域分布有两种主要模式。首先，贻贝物种在当前和未来情景中潜在适宜区域的分布是不同的：斑马贻贝的区域更适合温带地区，而金贻贝的适宜区域集中在热带和亚热带地区。第二，与斑马贻贝的适宜栖息地相比，在未来的全球变暖情景中，金贻贝的适宜栖息地将增加更多。事实上，有实验表明斑马贻贝与金贻贝相比对高温的耐受性较低，这与我们的研究结果一致。我们建议未来对新世界的金贻贝和斑马贻贝的监测应考虑当前和未来情景的最高热适宜性区域。