SummaryThe ‘Endangered’ Cape Vulture Gyps coprotheres has been monitored across its range for decades through disparate studies varying in geographical scope and length. Yet, no long-term, range-wide survey exists for the species. Coordinated monitoring across the range of the Cape Vulture would be logistically challenging but provide a holistic view of population dynamics in this long-lived species that forages across much of southern Africa. Here, we report breeding pair counts from seven colonies in the Cape Vulture’s north-eastern breeding region from 2010 to 2019. We used state-space models to assess population growth across time. Manutsa, Soutpansberg, and Nooitgedacht colonies increased significantly over the study period, with three other colonies having positive estimates of population growth, but 95% credible intervals overlapped zero. The smallest colony at Moletjie is declining toward extirpation; only one breeding pair remained in 2019. Our results suggest the north-eastern population has been stable or increasing since 2010 with our 2019 surveys counting 2,241 breeding pairs across all sites. Indeed, there is an 89% chance that the population across the colonies we monitored increased from 2010 to 2019. Coordinated, range-wide, full-cycle monitoring is needed to thoroughly assess conservation status and efficacy of conservation actions taken for this endangered species.

中文翻译：

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2010 年至 2019 年北角秃鹫吉普斯粪菌群落的人口增长率

摘要“濒临灭绝”的秃鹰角Gyps coprotheres几十年来，通过地理范围和长度不同的不同研究对其范围进行了监测。然而，没有针对该物种的长期、范围广泛的调查。在秃鹰角范围内进行协调监测在后勤方面将具有挑战性，但可以全面了解这种在南部非洲大部分地区觅食的长寿物种的种群动态。在这里，我们报告了 2010 年至 2019 年秃鹰角东北繁殖区七个殖民地的繁殖对数。我们使用状态空间模型来评估不同时间的种群增长。Manutsa、Soutpansberg 和 Nooitgedacht 殖民地在研究期间显着增加，其他三个殖民地对人口增长的估计为正，但 95% 的可信区间与零重叠。Moletjie最小的殖民地正在走向灭绝。2019 年只剩下一对繁殖对。我们的结果表明，自 2010 年以来，东北人口一直稳定或增加，我们 2019 年的调查统计了所有地点的 2,241 对繁殖对。事实上，从 2010 年到 2019 年，我们监测的殖民地的种群有 89% 的可能性增加。需要进行协调的、范围广泛的、全周期的监测，以彻底评估对这种濒危物种采取的保护状态和保护行动的有效性。