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A comprehensive assessment of power system resilience to a hurricane using a two-stage analytical approach incorporating risk-based index
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2020.100831
Maedeh Mahzarnia , Mohsen Parsa Moghaddam , Pierluigi Siano , Mahmoud-Reza Haghifam

Sustainability of power systems is a vital need for modern societies. The occurrence of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, may lead to blackouts. Hence, power systems resilience is a critical issue for experts. The main focus of this paper is on how to assess power system resilience comprehensively. In this regard, a two-stage framework is proposed. In the first stage, an approach is presented to evaluate power system resilience against a single intensity of a hurricane, which is called snapshot resilience assessment. The Cost of Energy Not Supplied (CENS) is regarded as a primary criterion. A risk measure called Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is incorporated into this approach to manage the risk of experiencing unfavorable failure scenarios. Accordingly, CVaR of CENS is proposed as an index in this stage. In the second stage, an approach for comprehensive resilience assessment is proposed, which is based on the trend of changing the values of snapshot resilience indices over a range of intensities of the event. The applicability of the proposed framework is tested in the IEEE 24-bus system. Finally, to examine the accuracy of the framework, the resilience of the test system is re-evaluated after applying a resilience improvement method.



中文翻译:

使用包含基于风险的指数的两阶段分析方法,对电力系统对飓风的恢复能力进行全面评估

电力系统的可持续性对现代社会至关重要。极端天气事件(例如飓风)的发生可能导致停电。因此,电力系统的弹性对于专家而言是至关重要的问题。本文的主要重点是如何全面评估电力系统的弹性。在这方面,提出了一个两阶段框架。在第一阶段,提出了一种针对飓风的单一强度评估电力系统弹性的方法,称为快照弹性评估。未提供能源成本(CENS)被视为主要标准。这种方法中引入了一种称为“有条件的风险值”(CVaR)的风险度量,以管理遇到不利的故障情况的风险。因此,在这一阶段,提出了CENS的CVaR作为指标。在第二阶段,基于事件强度范围内更改快照弹性指数值的趋势,提出了一种综合弹性评估方法。所提出框架的适用性已在IEEE 24-bus系统中进行了测试。最后,为了检验框架的准确性,在应用弹性改进方法之后,将重新评估测试系统的弹性。

更新日期:2020-09-25
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