When people predict their performance, they can be miscalibrated in two ways-they may mispredict how they will perform relative to others (misplacement) and how they will perform in absolute terms (misestimation). Prior work has yielded contradictory conclusions about the relative direction of these two types of miscalibration. Some research found that they occur in opposite directions-that is, that people who believe they are better than average (BTA) tend to underestimate their absolute performance, whereas those who believe they are worse than average (WTA) tend to overestimate their performance. Other studies found that the two types of miscalibration occur in the same direction-that is, that people with BTA beliefs tend to overestimate their performance. We reconcile these apparently conflicting findings by disentangling placement beliefs that are correct from those that are erroneous and focusing on the latter as only these represent instances of misplacement. Two field studies reveal a key asymmetry-erroneous BTA beliefs are primarily driven by misestimation of one's own absolute performance, whereas erroneous WTA beliefs tend to be driven by misestimation of others' absolute performance. A reexamination of data from Moore and Small (2007) supports this insight about the sources of misplacement beliefs. The findings suggest that the conflicting conclusions from prior work might have been attributable to differences in the extent to which results were based on observations with erroneous (as opposed to correct) placement beliefs. This research provides novel insights into the psychology of miscalibration in performance predictions and helps unify seemingly contradictory prior findings. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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在预测一个人的表现方面出现错误：错位和错误估计。

当人们预测自己的表现时，可能会通过两种方式对它们进行错误的校准-他们可能会错误地预测他们相对于他人的表现（错位）以及他们在绝对方面的表现（错估）。先前的工作对这两种类型的失标的相对方向得出了矛盾的结论。一些研究发现，它们的发生方向相反-也就是说，认为自己比平均水平（BTA）更好的人往往会低估其绝对表现，而那些认为自己比平均水平（WTA）差的人往往会高估自己的表现。其他研究发现，两种类型的校准错误朝着同一方向发生-也就是说，具有BTA信念的人往往会高估他们的表现。我们通过区分正确的布局信念和错误的布局信念，并集中于后者，以调和这些表面上矛盾的发现，因为只有这些表示错位的实例。两项现场研究表明，一个关键的非对称错误BTA信念主要是由对自己的绝对绩效的错误估计引起的，而错误的WTA信念往往是由对他人的绝对绩效的错误估计引起的。对Moore和Small（2007）的数据进行的重新检验，支持了这种关于错位信仰来源的见解。研究结果表明，先前工作中得出的结论相互矛盾，这可能是由于根据错误的（与正确的）安置信念所观察到的结果在程度上存在差异。这项研究提供了对性能预测中失调心理的新颖见解，并有助于统一看似矛盾的先前发现。（PsycInfo数据库记录（c）2020 APA，保留所有权利）。