A state-transition model is presented to project the prevalence rates of never, current and former smokers within the Dutch population. Changes are determined by the transition rates among these three classes: start rates, quit rates and relapse rates. Both the initial prevalence rates and transition rates are calculated from cross-sectional data using a restricted quadratic multinomial regression spline and a restricted quadratic logistic regression spline, respectively. Through a Monte Carlo experiment an uncertainty analysis was performed to assess the level of reliability of the results, while a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to detect the input variables that mostly contribute to the output variability. The results obtained through this model show a considerable but rather slow decrease of smokers up to year 2050.

中文翻译：

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如何获得吸烟行为的长期预测：以荷兰人口为例

提出了一种状态转换模型，以预测荷兰人口中从未吸烟，现在和以前的吸烟者的患病率。变化取决于这三个类别之间的转换率：开始率，退出率和复发率。分别使用限制的二次多项式回归样条和限制的二次逻辑回归样条从横截面数据中计算初始患病率和转移率。通过蒙特卡洛实验，进行了不确定性分析，以评估结果的可靠性水平，同时进行了敏感性分析，以检测主要影响输出可变性的输入变量。通过该模型获得的结果表明，到2050年，吸烟者的人数将有相当大的减少，但增长缓慢。