Abstract. Global climate change may enable invasive plant species (IPS) to invade protected areas (PAs), but plant invasion on a global scale has not yet been explicitly addressed. Here, we mapped the potential invasion pathways for IPS in PAs across the globe and explored potential factors determining the pathways of plant invasion under climate change. We used species distribution modelling to estimate the suitable habitats of 386 IPS and applied a corridor analysis to compute the potential pathways of IPS in PAs under climate change. Subsequently, we analysed the potential factors affecting the pathways in PAs. According to our results, the main potential pathways of IPS in PAs are in Europe, eastern Australia, New Zealand, southern Africa, and eastern regions of South America and are strongly influenced by changes in temperature and precipitation. Protected areas can play an important role in preventing and controlling the spread of IPS under climate change. This is due to the fact that measures are taken to monitor climate change in detail, to provide effective management near or inside PAs, and to control the introduction of IPS with a high capacity for natural dispersal. A review of conservation policies in PAs is urgently needed.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下保护区植物入侵途径建模：入侵管理的意义

摘要。全球气候变化可能使入侵植物物种 (IPS) 能够入侵保护区 (PA)，但尚未明确解决全球范围内的植物入侵问题。在这里，我们绘制了全球 PA 中 IPS 的潜在入侵途径，并探索了决定气候变化下植物入侵途径的潜在因素。我们使用物种分布模型来估计 386 IPS 的合适栖息地，并应用走廊分析来计算气候变化下 PA 中 IPS 的潜在途径。随后，我们分析了影响 PA 通路的潜在因素。根据我们的研究结果，IPS 在 PA 中的主要潜在途径是欧洲、澳大利亚东部、新西兰、非洲南部、和南美洲东部地区，受温度和降水变化的强烈影响。保护区可以在预防和控制气候变化下IPS的传播方面发挥重要作用。这是因为采取措施详细监测气候变化，在保护区附近或内部提供有效管理，并控制具有高自然扩散能力的 IPS 的引入。迫切需要对保护区的保护政策进行审查。