Abstract. Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression.

中文翻译：

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21 世纪西伯利亚中部 <i>Lophodermium</i> 针叶的潜在气候诱导分布

摘要。由 Lophodermium Chevall 属真菌引起的针管铸型。是西伯利亚松树的常见病害。将 1997 年至 2010 年的针铸事件与气候变量相关联的回归分析表明，该疾病最依赖于连续两年的降水。在较潮湿的年份，温度条件对于引发这种疾病很重要。我们使用我们的区域生物气候包络模型和 IPCC 情景来模拟 21 世纪的针铸分布及其爆发。在气候变暖的情况下，针投范围将向北移动。到 2020 年，针铸暴发已经破坏了最大的森林地区。但到 2080 年，爆发区域将减少，因为模型病原体和疾病宿主苏格兰松的范围将分开：