Throughout the covid-19 emergency, health authorities have presented contagion data divided by administrative regions with no reference to the type of landscape, environment or development model. This study has been conducted to understand whether there is a correlation between the number of infections and the different rural landscapes of the country. Italy’s rural landscape can be classified in four types, according to the intensity of energy inputs used in the agricultural process, socioeconomic and environmental features. Type A includes areas of periurban agriculture surrounding the metropolitan cities, type B areas of intensive agriculture with high concentration of agroindustry, type C hilly areas with highly diversified agriculture and valuable landscape, and type D high hills and mountains with forests and protected areas. Areas A and B are located in the plains, covering 21% of the territory and accounting for 57% of the population. They produce most of the added value, consume high levels of energy and represent the main source of pollution. Areas C and D cover 79% of the territory and 43% of the population. We find that provinces with 10% more type C and D areas exhibit on average 10% fewer cases of contagion. The result is statistically significant, after controlling for demographic, economic and environmental characteristics of the provinces. The pollution produced in more energy-intensive landscape has triggered an intense debate of how to ensure the economic competitiveness of Italian agriculture, without compromising environmental integrity or public health. Our findings speak to this debate, by suggesting that planning for more rural territory with lower energy inputs may come with the added benefit of new development opportunities and decreasing the exposure of the population to covid-19. Cost benefit-analyses should take into account that policies aimed at revitalizing more rural areas may reduce the economic impact of covid-19 and of potential future pandemics.

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Covid-19 和乡村景观：以意大利为例

在整个 covid-19 紧急情况中，卫生当局提供了按行政区域划分的传染病数据，没有提及景观类型、环境或发展模式。进行这项研究是为了了解感染数量与该国不同农村景观之间是否存在相关性。根据农业过程中使用的能源投入强度、社会经济和环境特征，意大利的乡村景观可分为四种类型。A类包括大城市周边的城郊农业区、B类农业集约化高度集中的农业区、C类农业高度多样化、景观价值高的丘陵区、D类高山丘陵、森林和保护区。A区和B区位于平原，占国土面积的21%，人口占57%。它们产生大部分附加值，消耗大量能源，是主要的污染源。C区和D区覆盖了79%的领土和43%的人口。我们发现，C 类和 D 类地区多出 10% 的省份，传染病例平均减少 10%。在控制了各省的人口、经济和环境特征后，该结果具有统计显着性。能源密集型景观中产生的污染引发了一场激烈的辩论，即如何确保意大利农业的经济竞争力，同时又不损害环境完整性或公共健康。我们的发现说明了这场辩论，通过建议以较低的能源投入规划更多农村地区可能会带来新发展机会的额外好处，并减少人口对 covid-19 的暴露。成本效益分析应考虑到旨在振兴更多农村地区的政策可能会减少 covid-19 和未来潜在流行病的经济影响。