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Possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context
Royal Society Open Science ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-23 , DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200886
I Santamaría-Holek 1 , V Castaño 2
Affiliation  

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an ongoing battle against SARS-CoV-2. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we present an innovative compartmental model that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employ it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention and end of restrictive social policies on the pandemic’s time evolution via time-dependent corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model could help authorities determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.



中文翻译:

SARS-CoV-2 在墨西哥传播的可能命运

确定适当的居家隔离时间以及何时结束社交距离限制现在是任何国家在持续抗击 SARS-CoV-2 的斗争中必须面临的两个主要挑战。当前,流行病学研究的主要目标之一是新一轮大流行爆发的可能性以及如何避免它。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种创新的分区模型,明确介绍了活跃病例的数量,并将其用作概念工具来探索 SARS-CoV-2 在墨西哥传播的可能命运。我们通过对感染率进行随时间的修正,将限制性社会政策的开始、疏忽和结束对大流行时间演变的影响纳入进来。还研究了后社会限制政策对疫情的严重程度和影响。该模型生成的情景可以帮助当局确定可以允许恢复正常活动的足够时间和人口负荷。

更新日期:2020-09-23
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