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Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide.
Physical Biology ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-22 , DOI: 10.1088/1478-3975/abb2db
Jack Merrin 1
Affiliation  

Error analysis and data visualization of positive COVID-19 cases in 27 countries have been performed up to August 8, 2020. This survey generally observes a progression from early exponential growth transitioning to an intermediate power-law growth phase, as recently suggested by Ziff and Ziff. The occurrence of logistic growth after the power-law phase with lockdowns or social distancing may be described as an effect of avoidance. A visualization of the power-law growth exponent over short time windows is qualitatively similar to the Bhatia visualization for pandemic progression. Visualizations like these can indicate the onset of second waves and may influence social policy.

中文翻译:

幂律法随时间增长的差异以及全球COVID-19大流行进展的指标。

截至2020年8月8日,已经在27个国家进行了阳性COVID-19阳性病例的错误分析和数据可视化。正如Ziff和Ziff最近建议的那样,此调查通常观察到从早期指数增长过渡到中间幂律增长阶段的过程。齐夫 在具有禁闭或社会疏远的幂律阶段之后,逻辑增长的发生可以描述为逃避的效果。在短时间内,幂律增长指数的可视化在质量上与大流行进程的Bhatia可视化相似。像这样的可视化可以表明第二波的开始,并可能影响社会政策。
更新日期:2020-09-23
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