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A model of the indirect losses from negative shocks in production and finance.
PLOS ONE ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-23 , DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239293
Hazem Krichene 1, 2 , Hiroyasu Inoue 2 , Takashi Isogai 3 , Abhijit Chakraborty 2, 4, 5
Affiliation  

Economies are frequently affected by natural disasters and both domestic and overseas financial crises. These events disrupt production and cause multiple other types of economic losses, including negative impacts on the banking system. Understanding the transmission mechanism that causes various negative second-order post-catastrophe effects is crucial if policymakers are to develop more efficient recovery strategies. In this work, we introduce a credit-based adaptive regional input-output (ARIO) model to analyse the effects of disasters and crises on the supply chain and bank-firm credit networks. Using real Japanese networks and the exogenous shocks of the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the Great East Japan Earthquake (March 11, 2011), this paper aims to depict how these negative shocks propagate through the supply chain and affect the banking system. The credit-based ARIO model is calibrated using Latin hypercube sampling and the design of experiments procedure to reproduce the short-term (one-year) dynamics of the Japanese industrial production index after the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. Then, through simulation experiments, we identify the chemical and petroleum manufacturing and transport sectors as the most vulnerable Japanese industrial sectors. Finally, the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is simulated for Japanese prefectures to understand differences among regions in terms of globally engendered indirect economic losses. Tokyo and Osaka prefectures are the most vulnerable locations because they hold greater concentrations of the above-mentioned vulnerable industrial sectors.



中文翻译:

生产和金融负面冲击造成的间接损失的模型。

经济经常受到自然灾害以及国内外金融危机的影响。这些事件破坏了生产并造成了多种其他类型的经济损失,包括对银行系统的负面影响。如果政策制定者要制定更有效的恢复策略,那么了解导致各种负面二级灾难后影响的传播机制至关重要。在这项工作中,我们引入了一种基于信用的自适应区域投入产出(ARIO)模型,以分析灾难和危机对供应链和银行企业信用网络的影响。利用真实的日本网络以及2008年雷曼兄弟破产和东日本大地震(2011年3月11日)带来的外部冲击,本文旨在描述这些负面冲击如何通过供应链传播并影响银行系统。基于信用的ARIO模型是使用拉丁文超立方体抽样和实验程序设计进行校准的,以重现2008年雷曼兄弟破产和2011年东日本大地震后日本工业生产指数的短期(一年)动态。然后,通过模拟实验,我们将化学和石油制造与运输部门确定为最脆弱的日本工业部门。最后,以日本都道府县为例,模拟了2011年东日本大地震的情况,以了解全球造成的间接经济损失方面的地区差异。

更新日期:2020-09-23
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