Petroleum explorers regularly make numerous forecasts for prospects and wells, but the quality of their predictions has inadequate documentation. Here I discuss the forecasting abilities of individual explorers inferred from a survey about future exploration wells, some of which were drilled in late 2018 and 2019. A total of 104 petroleum explorers provided 7,068 answers about eleven wells and about themselves, and subsets from this dataset were used to study their predictions. The survey participants were diverse, and most had M.Sc. or Ph.D. degrees with >16 years of industry experience working as individual contributors and/or middle managers for oil companies. Assessments of the geological probability of success (PoS) by different explorers for the same well were highly variable, and average assessments poorly discriminated between future discoveries and dry holes. Point (binary or multiple choice) forecasts by explorers participating in the survey were, on average, only slightly better than random guessing. The participants' highest academic degree had little apparent influence on the quality of the point forecasts. Years of experience resulted in only slightly better correlation with increasing quality of forecasts. Survey participants more familiar with the prospects (those who generated them or evaluated proprietary company data) made, on average, worse exploration forecasts than those who studied only the limited publicly available information provided with the survey. The duration of time spent on the survey did not affect the quality of forecasts. The aggregated opinion of all explorers (wisdom of the crowd) may be beneficial in assessments of the geological PoS, but perhaps not so when forecasted outcomes have binary or multiple possibilities. The generally poor forecasting abilities of individual petroleum explorers may surprise some decision‐makers and investors. However, many of the study results are based on relatively small datasets and should be treated as preliminary. Further research with larger datasets is necessary to replicate, validate and explain the findings of this study.

中文翻译：

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个体石油勘探者的预测能力：群众来源的前景评估的初步发现

石油勘探人员经常对远景和油井进行大量预测，但其预测质量不足以证明文件内容。在这里，我将讨论从有关未来勘探井的调查中推断出的各个勘探人员的预测能力，其中一些是在2018年末和2019年进行钻探的。总共104个石油勘探人员提供了关于11口井及其自身以及该数据集的子集的7,068个答案被用来研究他们的预测。参加调查的人各不相同，而且大多数都拥有硕士学位。或博士学位 具有超过16年行业经验的学位，曾担任石油公司的个人贡献者和/或中层经理。不同勘探者对同一口井的成功地质概率（PoS）的评估变化很大，和平均评估很难区分未来的发现和干洞。参与调查的探索者的点（二进制或多项选择）预测平均仅比随机猜测好一点。参与者的最高学历对分数预测的质量影响不大。多年的经验导致与预测质量的提高之间的相关性稍好。平均而言，与仅研究调查所提供的有限的公开信息的参与者相比，对调查对象（产生前景或评估专有公司数据的人）做出的勘探预测平均较差。花在调查上的时间不会影响预测的质量。所有勘探者（人群的智慧）的综合意见可能对地质PoS的评估是有益的，但当预测结果具有二元或多种可能性时，可能并非如此。个别石油勘探公司的预测能力普遍较差，可能会使某些决策者和投资者感到惊讶。但是，许多研究结果都基于相对较小的数据集，应视为初步数据。为了复制，验证和解释本研究的结果，有必要对更大的数据集进行进一步的研究。许多研究结果均基于相对较小的数据集，应视为初步数据。为了复制，验证和解释本研究的结果，有必要对更大的数据集进行进一步的研究。许多研究结果均基于相对较小的数据集，应视为初步数据。为了复制，验证和解释本研究的结果，有必要对更大的数据集进行进一步的研究。