当前位置: X-MOL 学术Earth Space Sci. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Temporal Changes of Near‐Surface Air Temperature in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016
Earth and Space Science ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-23 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ea001174
R. Modzelewska 1 , M. V. Alania 1, 2 , N. I. Kapanadze 3 , E. I. Khelaia 2
Affiliation  

Analyses of near‐surface air temperature T in Poland for 1781–2016 and in Tbilisi (Georgia) for 1881–2016 have been carried out. We show that the centenary warming effect in Poland and in Tbilisi has almost the same peculiarities. An average centenary warming effect ΔT = (1.08 ± 0.29)°C is observed in Poland and in Tbilisi for 1881–2016. A warming effect is larger in winter season (ΔT = ~1.15°C) than in other seasons (average warming effect for these seasons ΔT = ~0.95°C). We show that a centenary warming is mainly related to the change of solar activity (estimated by sunspot number [SSN] and total solar irradiance [TSI]), particularly, a time interval about ~70 years (1890–1960), when correlation coefficients between 11‐year smoothed SSN and T, and TSI and T are high, r = 0.66 ± 0.07 and r = 0.73 ± 0.07 for Poland and r = 0.82 ± 0.05 and r = 0.90 ± 0.05 for Tbilisi, respectively; in this period solar activity contributes decisively in the global warming. We show that a global warming effect equals zero based on the temperature T data in Poland for period 1781–1880, when human activities were relatively less than in 1881–2016. We recognize a few feeble ~20 ± 3 years of disturbances in the temperature changes for period 1885–1980, most likely related with the fluctuations of solar magnetic cycles. We distinguish the fluctuations of ~7–8 years in Poland's T data, possibly connected with local effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

中文翻译:

波兰1781–2016年和第比利斯(格鲁吉亚)1881–2016年近地表气温的时间变化

对波兰1781–2016年和第比利斯(格鲁吉亚)1881–2016年的近地表温度T进行了分析。我们表明,波兰和第比利斯的百年变暖效应具有几乎相同的特征。 在波兰和第比利斯,1881年至2016年的平均百年变暖效应ΔT =(1.08±0.29)°C。冬季(ΔT  =〜1.15°C)的变暖效应大于其他季节(这些季节的平均变暖效应ΔT =〜0.95°C)。我们表明,百年变暖主要与太阳活动的变化有关(由太阳黑子数[SSN]和总太阳辐照度[TSI]估算),特别是大约70年(1890-1960年)的时间间隔,此时相关系数在11年平滑SSN和T之间以及TSI和T高之间, 波兰的r  = 0.66±0.07和r = 0.73±0.07  ,第比利斯的r  = 0.82±0.05和r = 0.90±0.05; 在此期间,太阳活动对全球变暖起着决定性的作用。我们表明,基于温度T,全球变暖效应等于零波兰1781年至1880年的数据,当时人类活动相对较少于1881年至2016年。我们认识到1885年至1980年期间温度变化的微弱〜20±3年扰动,最有可能与太阳电磁周期的波动有关。我们在波兰的T数据中区分了约7-8年的波动,这可能与北大西洋涛动的局部影响有关。
更新日期:2020-10-07
down
wechat
bug