Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine conditions, and the predictability of tidal cycles. In this study, we test whether skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for up to 35 days into the future by combining an estuarine model of Chesapeake Bay with 35‐day atmospheric forecasts from an operational weather model. When compared with both a hindcast simulation from the same estuarine model and with observations, the estuarine forecasts for surface water temperature are skillful up to about 2 weeks into the future, and the forecasts for bottom temperature, surface and bottom salinity, and density stratification are skillful for all or the majority of the forecast period. Bottom oxygen forecasts are skillful when compared to the model hindcast, but not when compared with observations. We also find that skill for all variables in the estuary can be improved by taking the mean of multiple estuarine forecasts driven by an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts. Finally, we examine the forecasts in detail using two case studies of extreme events, and we discuss opportunities for improving the forecast skill.

中文翻译：

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从每日天气到亚季节时间尺度的河口预报

现有的大多数河口预报系统仅在未来几天内就可以预测天气情况。但是，有许多理由可以期望对更长时期进行熟练的河口预报，包括日益熟练的扩展大气预报，大气强迫对河口条件的持久影响的潜力以及潮汐周期的可预测性。在这项研究中，我们将切萨皮克湾的河口模型与可操作的天气模型中的35天大气预报相结合，测试了在未来的35天内是否可能进行熟练的河口预报。与同一个河口模型的后预报模拟和观测结果相比，河口对地表水温度的预测在未来约2周内是熟练的，底部或底部大部分区域的底部温度，表面和底部盐度以及密度分层的预测都很熟练。与模型后验模型相比，底部氧气预测是熟练的，但与观测值相比则不是。我们还发现，采用大气预报集合驱动的多个河口预报的平均值，可以提高河口所有变量的技能。最后，我们使用两个极端事件的案例研究详细检查了预测，并讨论了提高预测技能的机会。我们还发现，采用大气预报集合驱动的多个河口预报的平均值，可以提高河口所有变量的技能。最后，我们使用两个极端事件的案例研究详细检查了预测，并讨论了提高预测技能的机会。我们还发现，采用大气预报集合驱动的多个河口预报的平均值，可以提高河口所有变量的技能。最后，我们使用两个极端事件的案例研究详细检查了预测，并讨论了提高预测技能的机会。