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Observed trends in daily temperature extreme indices in Aguascalientes, Mexico
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03391-1
Osias Ruiz-Alvarez , Vijay P. Singh , Juan Enciso-Medina , Ronald Ernesto Ontiveros-Capurata , Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos

Climate change is a pernicious and irrefutable reality. The objective of this work was to analyze trends in extreme temperature indices in Aguascalientes. With RClimdex 1.0 and data on daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), 16 temperature indices were calculated. The trend in indices was determined with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test (p ≤ 0.05), while the rate of change was obtained with Theil-Sen’s trend estimator. Significant positive trends were observed in 72 time series of indices associated with Tmax and in 39 time series of indices associated with Tmin. Significant negative trends were observed in 22 time series of indices associated with Tmax, and in 45 time series of indices associated with Tmin. In some regions of Aguascalientes, diurnal warming is occurring; in others, warmer or less cold nights prevail. The changes in extreme temperature indices might have severe implications in the use of irrigation water, cause physiological stress in crops, promote respiratory and cardiac diseases, and improve the reproduction cycles and populations of insects. Also, the fruit production, such as guava, could be affected under the reduction of minimum temperature, and the increase in warm days where other fruit trees are cultivated can intensify the use of chemical compensators of cold. These results are of significance for long-term economic planning and design of strategies of adaptation/mitigation to climate change. In Aguascalientes, the changes observed in extreme temperature indices could be due to climate change of a bigger scale, either regional or at the watershed level.



中文翻译:

墨西哥阿瓜斯卡连特斯的每日极端温度指数的观测趋势

气候变化是一个有害而无可辩驳的现实。这项工作的目的是分析阿瓜斯卡连特斯州极端温度指数的趋势。与RClimdex 1.0和每日最高(数据Ť最大值)和最小温度(Ť分钟),分别计算16个的温度指标。在指标的趋势是用非参数Mann-Kendall检验(确定p ≤0.05),而用泰尔森的趋势估计获得的变化率。在与T max相关的72个时间序列指标和与T min相关的39个时间序列指标中观察到显着的积极趋势。在与T max相关的22个时间序列指标和与T min相关的45个时间序列指标中观察到了显着的负趋势。在阿瓜斯卡连特斯的某些地区,昼夜变暖。在另一些国家,夜晚比较温暖或更冷。极端温度指数的变化可能对灌溉用水的使用产生严重影响,会给作物造成生理压力,促进呼吸系统疾病和心脏病,并改善昆虫的繁殖周期和种群。此外,在最低温度降低的情况下,番石榴等水果的生产可能会受到影响,而在其他水果树种植的温暖天数增加,则可能会增加使用冷化学补偿剂。这些结果对于长期经济规划和设计适应/缓解气候变化的策略具有重要意义。在阿瓜斯卡连特斯,极端温度指数的变化可能是由于更大规模的气候变化所致,

更新日期:2020-09-23
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