Imperfect future immunity Humans are infected by several seasonal and cross-reacting coronaviruses. None provokes fully protective immunity, and repeat infections are the norm. Vaccines tend to be less efficient than natural infections at provoking immunity, and there are risks of adverse cross-reactions. Saad-Roy et al. used a series of simple models for a variety of immune scenarios to envisage immunological futures for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with and without vaccines. The model outcomes show that our imperfect knowledge about the imperfect coronavirus immune landscape can give rise to diverging scenarios ranging from recurring severe epidemics to elimination. It is critical that we accurately characterize immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 for translation into managing disease control. Science, this issue p. 811 Modeling shows how essential it is to improve precise understanding of immune responses to SARS-CoV-2. The future trajectory of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic hinges on the dynamics of adaptive immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); however, salient features of the immune response elicited by natural infection or vaccination are still uncertain. We use simple epidemiological models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future COVID-19 cases, given different assumptions regarding the protective efficacy and duration of the adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2, as well as its interaction with vaccines and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that variations in the immune response to primary SARS-CoV-2 infections and a potential vaccine can lead to markedly different immune landscapes and burdens of critically severe cases, ranging from sustained epidemics to near elimination. Our findings illustrate likely complexities in future COVID-19 dynamics and highlight the importance of immunological characterization beyond the measurement of active infections for adequately projecting the immune landscape generated by SARS-CoV-2 infections.

中文翻译：

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免疫生活史、疫苗接种以及 SARS-CoV-2 未来 5 年的动态

未来免疫力不完善人类会感染几种季节性和交叉反应的冠状病毒。没有一种药物能激发完全的保护性免疫力，重复感染是常态。疫苗在激发免疫力方面往往不如自然感染有效，并且存在不良交叉反应的风险。萨阿德-罗伊等人。使用一系列适用于各种免疫场景的简单模型来设想使用和不使用疫苗的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 的免疫学未来。模型结果表明，我们对冠状病毒免疫环境的不完善了解可能会导致不同的情况，从反复出现的严重流行病到消除。我们准确地表征对 SARS-CoV-2 的免疫反应对于转化为疾病控制管理至关重要。科学，本期第 14 页。811 建模表明提高对 SARS-CoV-2 免疫反应的精确理解是多么重要。2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行的未来轨迹取决于针对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 的适应性免疫的动态；然而，自然感染或疫苗接种引起的免疫反应的显着特征仍不确定。我们使用简单的流行病学模型来探索对未来 COVID-19 病例的规模和时间的估计，考虑到对 SARS-CoV-2 的适应性免疫反应的保护功效和持续时间及其与疫苗和非药物的相互作用的不同假设干预措施。我们发现，对原发性 SARS-CoV-2 感染和潜在疫苗的免疫反应的变化可能导致明显不同的免疫状况和重症病例的负担，从持续流行到几乎消除。我们的研究结果说明了未来 COVID-19 动态中可能存在的复杂性，并强调了除了测量活动性感染之外，免疫学特征的重要性，以充分预测 SARS-CoV-2 感染产生的免疫景观。