As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends in mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to its intermittent character, a key challenge when compounded with uncertainties related to climate variability. Using both satellite data and climate model outputs, we characterize solar radiation intermittency to assess future photovoltaic reliability. We find that the relation between the future power supply and long-term mean solar radiation trends is spatially heterogeneous, showing power reliability is more sensitive to the fluctuations of mean solar radiation in hot arid regions. Our results highlight how reliability analysis must account simultaneously for the mean and intermittency of solar inputs when assessing the impacts of climate change on photovoltaics.

随着光伏发电在全球范围内迅速扩张，必须评估其在未来气候情景下的前景。虽然大量研究致力于平均太阳辐射的趋势，但对其间歇性特征的关注较少，当与气候变异相关的不确定性复杂时，这是一个关键挑战。使用卫星数据和气候模型输出，我们表征太阳辐射的间歇性以评估未来的光伏可靠性。我们发现未来电力供应与长期平均太阳辐射趋势之间的关系在空间上是异质的，表明电力可靠性对炎热干旱地区平均太阳辐射的波动更为敏感。