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Temporal shifts in Americans’ risk perceptions of the Zika outbreak
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-21 , DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2020.1820852
Branden B. Johnson 1 , Marcus Mayorga 1
Affiliation  

Abstract

Cross-sectional surveys, despite their value, are unable to probe dynamics of risk perceptions over time. An earlier longitudinal panel study of Americans’ views on Ebola risk inspired this partial replication on Americans’ views of Zika risks, using multilevel modeling to assess temporal changes in these views and inter-individual factors affecting them, and to determine if similar factors were influential for both non-epidemics in the USA. Baseline Zika risk scores – as in the Ebola study – were influenced by dread of the Zika virus, perceptions of a near-miss outbreak, and perceived likelihood of an outbreak. Judgments of both personal risk and national risk from Zika declined significantly, and individual rates of news following predicted slower decline of perceived national risk in both cases. However, few other factors affected changes in Zika risk judgments, which did not replicate in a validation half-sample, whereas several factors slowed or increased the rate of decline in Ebola judgments of the U.S. risk. These differences might reflect differences in the diseases caused by these two viruses – e.g., Ebola’s much greater lethality – but more longitudinal studies across multiple diseases will be needed to test that speculation. Benefits of such studies to health risk analysis outweigh the difficulties they pose.



中文翻译:

美国人对寨卡病毒爆发的风险观念的时间变化

摘要

横断面调查尽管有价值,但无法随时间推移探索风险感知的动态。较早的一项关于美国人对埃博拉风险的观点的纵向面板研究激发了美国人对寨卡风险观点的部分复制,使用多层次建模来评估这些观点的时间变化和影响他们的个体间因素,并确定类似因素是否具有影响力适用于美国的两种非流行病。像埃博拉病毒研究一样,基线寨卡病毒风险评分受到寨卡病毒的恐惧,对即将爆发的暴发的感知以及暴发的可能性的影响。寨卡病毒对人身风险和国家风险的判断均显着下降,并且在预测两种情况下人们感知到的国家风险下降的趋势之后,个人新闻率均下降。然而,极少数其他因素影响了Zika风险判断的变化,而这种变化并未在验证的半样本中重复出现,而其他几个因素减缓或增加了美国对埃博拉风险的判断下降率。这些差异可能反映了这两种病毒引起的疾病差异(例如,埃博拉病毒的致死率更高),但需要对多种疾病进行更纵向的研究,以检验这种推测。此类研究对健康风险分析的好处超过了它们带来的困难。埃博拉具有更大的杀伤力-但需要对多种疾病进行更深入的纵向研究,以检验这种推测。此类研究对健康风险分析的好处超过了它们带来的困难。埃博拉具有更大的杀伤力-但需要对多种疾病进行更深入的纵向研究,以检验这种推测。此类研究对健康风险分析的好处超过了它们带来的困难。

更新日期:2020-09-21
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