The present study was conducted to predict the current and future potential distribution of a tree species Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb. in Ranchi, Eastern India using ecological niche modeling. Nine environmental variables comprising of isothermality, precipitation of wettest and warmest quarter, annual temperature range, soil type, human influence index, elevation, slope and land use cover were used to model the distribution of the species. Climatic variables governed the predicted distribution of the species as they contributed 56.7% as compared to the other nonclimatic variables (43.3%). Northern parts exhibited the most suitable niche of the species as compared to south‐east and central parts that showed low probability of occurrence due to high disturbances caused by rapid urbanization as well as over exploitation of the species for timber, edible and medicinal uses. The average test area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) (0.921) as well as the partial AUC indicated good model performance. The projected change scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 for the year 2050 reveal that the climatically suitable areas will be drastically reduced in Ranchi. The population of the species is declining due to its exploitation from natural habitats for timber and medicinal uses and is listed as near‐threatened by the current IUCN‐Red lists. The findings of this paper will help to identify the potential habitats for further conservation of this near‐threatened species in the changing climatic conditions and increasing anthropogenic pressure.

中文翻译：

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生态位模型，用于评价紫檀（Rosb）的潜在分布。在印度东部兰契

进行本研究以预测目前的和将来的树种紫檀的潜在分布Roxb。在印度东部兰契（Ranchi）使用生态位建模。利用9个环境变量（包括等温，最湿和最暖季的降水，年度温度范围，土壤类型，人类影响指数，海拔，坡度和土地利用覆盖率）来模拟物种分布。气候变量决定了物种的预测分布，与其他非气候变量（43.3％）相比，它们占了56.7％。与东南部和中部地区相比，北部地区表现出该物种最合适的生态位。由于快速的城市化以及对该物种的木材，食用和医药用途的过度开发，北部地区和中部地区的发生概率较低。接收器工作曲线（AUC）下的平均测试面积（0。921）以及部分AUC表示模型性能良好。预计到2050年RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP6.0的变化情景表明，兰契的气候适宜地区将大大减少。由于从自然栖息地开采木材和药用，该物种的数量正在下降，并被当前的IUCN-Red清单列为濒临灭绝的物种。本文的研究结果将有助于确定潜在的栖息地，以便在不断变化的气候条件和不断增加的人为压力下进一步保护这一濒临灭绝的物种。由于从自然栖息地开采木材和药用，该物种的数量正在下降，并被当前的IUCN-Red清单列为濒临灭绝的物种。本文的研究结果将有助于确定潜在的栖息地，以便在不断变化的气候条件和不断增加的人为压力下进一步保护这一濒临灭绝的物种。由于从自然栖息地开采木材和药用，该物种的数量正在下降，并被当前的IUCN-Red清单列为濒临灭绝的物种。本文的研究结果将有助于确定潜在的栖息地，以便在不断变化的气候条件和不断增加的人为压力下进一步保护这一濒临灭绝的物种。