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A multi-agent model to study epidemic spreading and vaccination strategies in an urban-like environment
Applied Network Science Pub Date : 2020-09-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s41109-020-00299-7
Matthieu Nadini , Lorenzo Zino , Alessandro Rizzo , Maurizio Porfiri

Worldwide urbanization calls for a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading within urban environments. Here, we tackle this problem through an agent-based model, in which agents move in a two-dimensional physical space and interact according to proximity criteria. The planar space comprises several locations, which represent bounded regions of the urban space. Based on empirical evidence, we consider locations of different density and place them in a core-periphery structure, with higher density in the central areas and lower density in the peripheral ones. Each agent is assigned to a base location, which represents where their home is. Through analytical tools and numerical techniques, we study the formation mechanism of the network of contacts, which is characterized by the emergence of heterogeneous interaction patterns. We put forward an extensive simulation campaign to analyze the onset and evolution of contagious diseases spreading in the urban environment. Interestingly, we find that, in the presence of a core-periphery structure, the diffusion of the disease is not affected by the time agents spend inside their base location before leaving it, but it is influenced by their motion outside their base location: a strong tendency to return to the base location favors the spreading of the disease. A simplified one-dimensional version of the model is examined to gain analytical insight into the spreading process and support our numerical findings. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns, supporting the intuition that vaccination in central and dense areas should be prioritized.



中文翻译:

在城市环境中研究流行病传播和疫苗接种策略的多主体模型

世界范围的城市化要求对城市环境中的流行病传播有更深入的了解。在这里,我们通过基于代理的模型解决此问题,在该模型中,代理在二维物理空间中移动并根据邻近标准进行交互。平面空间包括几个位置,这些位置代表了城市空间的边界区域。根据经验证据,我们考虑不同密度的位置,并将它们放置在核心-外围结构中,中心区域的密度较高,而外围区域的密度较低。每个座席都分配到一个基本位置,该位置代表他们的住所。通过分析工具和数值技术,我们研究了以异质相互作用模式的出现为特征的人脉网络的形成机理。我们提出了一项广泛的模拟运动,以分析在城市环境中传播的传染病的发生和演变。有趣的是,我们发现,在存在核心外围结构的情况下,疾病的扩散不受代理商在离开基地之前花费在其基本位置内的时间的影响,而受其在基本位置外的运动的影响:返回基地的强烈趋势有利于疾病的传播。对模型的简化一维版本进行了检查,以获得对传播过程的分析见解并支持我们的数值发现。最后,我们调查了疫苗接种运动的有效性,支持直觉,即应该优先考虑在中部和密集地区进行疫苗接种。

更新日期:2020-09-22
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