There are few systematic studies on the risk probability assessment, although embankment seismic damages are extremely serious. Meanwhile, retaining walls and other retaining structures play positive roles in improving the embankment seismic performance, but relevant quantitative study is rarely reported. In particular, there are few existing studies on the seismic damage characteristics of the embankment fill-soil foundation system and the retaining structure-embankment fill-soil foundation system under different seismic actions. In view of this, the Xi’an-Baoji expressway K1125 + 470 embankment was taken as the research object, the risk probability assessment of the embankment seismic damage was conducted on the basis of the seismic fragility and seismic hazard assessment, the positive role of the retaining wall in improving the embankment seismic performance was verified, and the seismic damage evolution processes of the retaining wall-embankment fill-soil foundation system and the embankment fill-soil foundation system were analyzed. The research results show that the risk probabilities of the severe damage and destruction of the embankment fill-soil foundation system are 29.07% and 7.62% in the next 50 years, while of the retaining wall-embankment fill-soil foundation system are 19.30% and 3.46% and are reduced by 33.61% and 54.60%, respectively. The influence of the retaining wall on the embankment seismic performance mainly occurs at the middle stage of a violent earthquake, but the seismic damages of the retaining wall itself are also very serious, and the engineering disturbance of the retaining wall is reduced greatly or even lost completely at the final stage of the violent earthquake.

中文翻译：

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蒙特卡罗方法评估路堤地震破坏的风险概率

尽管路堤的地震破坏极为严重，但关于风险概率评估的系统研究很少。同时，挡土墙和其他挡土结构在改善路堤抗震性能方面发挥了积极作用，但有关定量研究的报道很少。尤其是，关于路堤填土基础系统和挡土结构-路堤填土基础系统在不同地震作用下的地震破坏特征的研究很少。鉴于此，以西安宝鸡高速公路K1125 + 470路堤为研究对象，在地震易损性和地震危险性评估的基础上进行了路堤地震破坏的风险概率评估，验证了挡土墙在改善路堤抗震性能中的积极作用，并分析了挡土墙-路堤填土基础系统和路堤填土基础系统的地震破坏演化过程。研究结果表明，在未来的50年中，路堤填土基础系统的严重破坏和破坏的风险概率分别为29.07％和7.62％，而挡土墙-堤土填土基础系统的风险概率为19.30％和。分别降低了3.46％和33.61％和54.60％。挡土墙对路堤抗震性能的影响主要发生在剧烈地震的中期，但挡土墙本身的地震破坏也非常严重，