To contain the COVID-19 pandemic, India imposed a national lockdown at the end of March 2020, a decision that resulted in a massive reverse migration as many workers across economic sectors returned to their home regions. Migrants provide the foundations of the agricultural workforce in the ‘breadbasket’ states of Punjab and Haryana in Northwest India.There are mounting concerns that near and potentially longer-term reductions in labor availability may jeopardize agricultural production and consequently national food security. The timing of rice transplanting at the beginning of the summer monsoon season has a cascading influence on productivity of the entire rice-wheat cropping system. To assess the potential for COVID-related reductions in the agriculture workforce to disrupt production of the dominant rice-wheat cropping pattern in these states, we use a spatial ex ante modelling framework to evaluate four scenarios representing a range of plausible labor constraints on the timing of rice transplanting. Averaged over both states, results suggest that rice productivity losses under all delay scenarios would be low as compare to those for wheat, with total system productivity loss estimates ranging from 9%, to 21%, equivalent to economic losses of USD $674 m to $1.48 billion. Late rice transplanting and harvesting can also aggravate winter air pollution with concomitant health risks. Technological options such as direct seeded rice, staggered nursery transplanting, and crop diversification away from rice can help address these challenges but require new approaches to policy and incentives for change.

中文翻译：

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农业劳动力、COVID-19 以及对印度粮仓的粮食安全和空气质量的潜在影响

为遏制 COVID-19 大流行，印度于 2020 年 3 月底实施了全国封锁，这一决定导致大规模的反向移民，因为经济部门的许多工人返回了他们的家乡地区。移民为印度西北部的旁遮普邦和哈里亚纳邦的“粮仓”邦提供了农业劳动力的基础。人们越来越担心近期和潜在的长期劳动力供应减少可能危及农业生产，进而危及国家粮食安全。在夏季季风季节开始时的水稻插秧时间对整个稻麦种植系统的生产力具有连锁影响。为了评估与 COVID 相关的农业劳动力减少破坏这些州主要稻麦种植模式生产的可能性，我们使用空间事前建模框架来评估四种情景，这些情景代表了对时间安排的一系列合理的劳动力限制水稻插秧。对两个州进行平均，结果表明，与小麦相比，所有延迟情景下的水稻生产力损失都较低，总系统生产力损失估计范围为 9% 至 21%，相当于 6.74 亿美元至 1.48 美元的经济损失十亿。晚插秧和收割水稻也会加剧冬季空气污染，并伴随健康风险。水稻直播、错秧移栽等技术选择，