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Current and predicted future distributions of wallabies in mainland New Zealand
New Zealand Journal of Zoology ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2018-06-11 , DOI: 10.1080/03014223.2018.1470540
A. David M. Latham 1 , M. Cecilia Latham 1 , Bruce Warburton 1
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT Bennett's (Notamacropus rufogriseus) and dama (N. eugenii) wallabies have been increasing in numbers and distribution in mainland New Zealand. Here, we update their current distributions; estimate current rates of spread to predict their future distributions; and describe the extent of suitable habitat for each species. Current distributions based on breeding populations and probable distributions based on outlier confirmed sightings resulting from natural dispersal and illegal liberations suggest that Bennett's and dama wallabies currently occupy between 5322–15,229 km2 (532,200–1,522,900 ha) and 1865–4126 km2 (186,500–412,600 ha), respectively. In 50 years, best- and worst-case estimates predict that they could occupy as much as 5883–44,226 km2 (588,300–4,422,600 ha) and 1912–40,579 km2 (191,200–4,057,900 ha), respectively. Habitat suitability was predicted to be high in the North and South islands, except for areas of high elevation, intensive agriculture with limited woody vegetative cover and large urban centres. In the absence of widespread intensive control, the ranges currently occupied by Bennett's and dama wallabies are predicted to increase by up to 7- and 20-fold (respectively) in 50 years. As their distributions continue to expand, they will become more difficult to control and their impacts more widespread. We suggest that progressively containing wallabies within increasingly smaller distributions and reducing their numbers to minimise damage within those distributions should be considered the top management priorities. If progressive containment is feasible it could lead to eventual eradication.

中文翻译:

新西兰大陆沙袋鼠的当前和预测的未来分布

摘要 Bennett's (Notamacropus rufogriseus) 和dama (N. eugenii) 沙袋鼠在新西兰大陆的数量和分布一直在增加。在这里,我们更新了他们当前的分布;估计当前的价差以预测其未来的分布;并描述每个物种的适宜栖息地范围。当前基于繁殖种群的分布以及基于自然扩散和非法解放导致的异常确认目击事件的可能分布表明 Bennett's 和 dama 沙袋鼠目前占据的面积在 5322-15,229 平方公里(532,200-1,522,900 公顷)和 1865-4186-506 平方公里(1865-4186120600 平方公里)之间), 分别。50 年后,最好和最坏情况的估计预测它们可能分别占据 5883-44,226 平方公里(588,300-4,422,600 公顷)和 1912-40,579 平方公里(191,200-4,057,900 公顷)。预计北岛和南岛的栖息地适宜性很高,但高海拔、集约化农业、木质植被覆盖有限的地区和大型城市中心除外。在缺乏广泛的集约化控制的情况下,预计贝内特袋鼠和达马袋鼠目前占据的范围将在 50 年内分别增加 7 倍和 20 倍(分别)。随着它们的分布范围不断扩大,它们将变得更加难以控制,其影响将更加广泛。我们建议在越来越小的分布中逐步控制沙袋鼠并减少它们的数量以最大程度地减少这些分布中的损害应被视为最高管理优先事项。如果逐步遏制可行,它可能会导致最终根除。
更新日期:2018-06-11
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