In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high.

中文翻译：

---

新西兰Aotearoa人口变化与区域发展的新视角

在新西兰，人口变化与区域发展息息相关。人口增长的地方吸引了地区投资，而地区投资（或缺乏）可以改变移民方式。但是，要确定社区对人口变化的适当应对措施，重要的是要了解，人口变化所涉及的不仅仅是“公正”移民。具体而言，它涉及人口变化的三个组成部分之间的相互作用：自然变化（出生减去死亡），净迁移（国际和国内）和人口老龄化（改变队列规模）。例如，迁移可能是负数，但由于潜在的自然增长或队列规模的增长，增长可能是正数。响应需要有所不同，具体取决于这些驱动程序。本文的目的是使用1976年至2013年期间新西兰275个城市，城镇和农村中心（以下称“城市场所”）的数据提供对这些相互作用的新见解。结果表明，自然变化一直是积极的到目前为止，对于大多数城市地区而言，尽管预测表明该组成部分在整个美国大部分地区都将成为负值。同时，净迁徙不仅在数量上而且在方向（负向或正向）上都表现出相当大的空间变化，其随年龄而显着不同。退休年龄的人的净收益可以抵消年轻人的净损失以实现总体增长，反之亦然，但是两者对于长期增长具有非常不同的含义。使用GIS和机器学习技术对净移民的驱动因素进行分析，可以表明经济状况（土地使用和市场准入），生活方式，获得基本服务（医院和教育）的重要性以及他们与年龄之间的相互作用的重要性。区域变化。结果表明，人口年龄是迁移的最佳预测指标。年轻人正在前往城市接受高等教育和工作，而退休或退休的老年人正在搬迁至较小的生活方式城镇，但也希望靠近医院和国际机场等便利设施。研究还表明，自然的生活方式特征（景观和气候）以及年龄与理解移民的经济条件同样重要。区域发展 例如有助于业务（端口和服务）的基础架构对于工作年龄人口很重要，但不一定适合退休年龄组。当区域发展，年龄/生命周期阶段和生活方式融合在一起时，例如在皇后镇和陶朗加，净移民收益就很高。