ABSTRACT We study four-echelon supply chains consisting of manufacturer, wholesaler, retailer and customer with recovery center as hybrid recycling channels. In order to gain a larger market share, the retailer often takes the sales as a decision-making variable. For this purpose, in this supply chain, the retailer limits the forecast of market demand in future periods with expected logic. It also manages demand by leveraging prices and choosing market. In this paper, first, we investigate the state-space model of this supply chain system and examine the effect of complex dynamic and stochastic noise on the bullwhip effect. We analytically prove that this factor leads to the bullwhip effect. So, first, we filtered the information between nodes with extended Kalman filter after which we regulated the destructive effects of the bullwhip phenomenon by designing a non-linear quadratic Gaussian optimal controller. Eventually, the simulation results indicate the efficiency of the proposed method.

中文翻译：

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存在随机噪声的闭环供应链非线性建模与性能分析

摘要 我们研究了由制造商、批发商、零售商和客户组成的四级供应链，以回收中心为混合回收渠道。零售商为了获得更大的市场份额，往往将销售额作为决策变量。为此，在这条供应链中，零售商以预期的逻辑限制了对未来时期市场需求的预测。它还通过利用价格和选择市场来管理需求。在本文中，我们首先研究了该供应链系统的状态空间模型，并研究了复杂动态和随机噪声对牛鞭效应的影响。我们通过分析证明这个因素导致了牛鞭效应。所以，首先，我们使用扩展卡尔曼滤波器过滤节点之间的信息，然后通过设计非线性二次高斯最优控制器来调节牛鞭现象的破坏性影响。最后，仿真结果表明了所提出方法的有效性。