To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?,Journal of Quaternary Science

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To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?
Journal of Quaternary Science ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-29 , DOI: 10.1002/jqs.3183
Jia He _{1,

2} , Yun Su _{1,

2} , Xiuqi Fang _{1,

2}

Affiliation

Analysing the contribution of climate and non‐climate change factors to social development and the occurrence of historical events represents important research on the impact of climate change. This study identifies combinations of social subsystem indices affected by temperature changes using the conceptual framework of food security, a priori knowledge and logical reasoning to statistically analyse three 10‐year data series (grain harvest grades, famine indices and economic levels) from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period of ancient China (210 bc to 960 ad). The results are as follows. For 94 of the 118 decades in the study period, social development was relatively directly related to temperature effects. On a decadal scale, against a cold background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 40.7% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 5.1 and 21.2% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to temperature effects. Against a warm background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 39% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 22 and 8.5% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to the temperature effects. The century and decadal‐scale characteristics were the same. Specifically, when mostly negative combinations of natural–socioeconomic factors dominated, the proportion of decades was slightly higher in cold than in warm periods. This case study enables a scientific understanding of the effect of changes in mean climate values/trends on social development and further demonstrates the different effects of the climate change process and mechanism. Climate cooling and warming may bring more positive than negative impacts in some regions and more negative than positive impacts in others. Complex feedback may amplify or reduce the impact of climate cooling and warming. Climate that evolves unfavourably has an impact more strongly correlated with the socioeconomic system's vulnerability and adaptability. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

更新日期：2020-01-29

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