This paper analyzes the role of the main spatial determinants of land use dynamics and simulates past and future scenarios of land use in Paragominas, an old agricultural frontier in Amazonia. Deforestation rates have been reduced since 2007–2008 but soybean cropping and tree plantations are currently undergoing intense expansion. During this transition period, deforestation has shifted from areas close to paved roads to more distant areas and to small farms. Soybean and tree plantations expanded away from paved roads. Soybean crop distribution has a marked influence on the the agricultural potential of the land. Future scenario simulations indicate a loss of almost half of the municipality’s forests by 2030 if pre-2007–2008 transition rates are considered. Zero deforestation scenarios show competition between pastureland and cropland, especially on the fertile plateaus. These results highlight the changes in spatial rules and the role of natural factors in an old agricultural frontier.

本文分析了土地利用动态的主要空间决定因素的作用，并模拟了Paragominas（亚马逊河的一个古老的农业前沿）中土地利用的过去和未来情景。自2007年至2008年以来，森林砍伐率有所降低，但大豆种植和人工林目前正在急剧扩张。在这个过渡时期，森林砍伐已经从靠近铺路的地区转移到了更远的地区和小型农场。大豆和树木种植园远离铺路。大豆作物的分布对土地的农业潜力具有显着影响。未来的情景模拟表明，如果考虑2007-2008年前的过渡速度，到2030年，该市的森林将损失近一半。零森林砍伐情况表明牧场与耕地之间存在竞争，特别是在肥沃的高原上。这些结果突出了空间规则的变化以及自然因素在旧农业疆域中的作用。