Abstract The built-up area of Addis Ababa and its surrounding towns is expanding into the peri-urban region leading to high losses of farmland, directly influencing the food production for the urban population. This paper investigates the patterns of settlement growth in the region surrounding Addis Ababa and their impact on peri-urban agriculture using an urban spatial scenario design model. The effects of two population density scenarios are explored within the framework of a proposed master plan. The model output was used to estimate areas of different suitability levels that would be lost to the modelled settlement expansion. The settlement area in 2038 would represent 29% of the case study’s total area in the low-density scenario but only 19% in the high-density scenario. Compared to the low-density scenario, the high-density scenario would only require a third of the agricultural land transformed into settlement areas. Settlement development would contribute to higher losses of land suitable for cultivating important export products, high nutritional value and import-substituting products. The scenario approach can support sustainable regional planning for settlement expansion that conserves valuable farmland in the peri-urban area and contributes to building capacity for strategic planning of the city regions of sub-Saharan Africa.

中文翻译：

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探索撒哈拉以南非洲城乡联系的未来：模拟城市扩张及其对亚的斯亚贝巴地区粮食生产的影响

摘要 亚的斯亚贝巴及其周边城镇的建成区正在向城郊地区扩展，导致农田大量流失，直接影响到城市人口的粮食生产。本文使用城市空间情景设计模型研究了亚的斯亚贝巴周边地区的聚落增长模式及其对城郊农业的影响。在拟议的总体规划框架内探讨了两种人口密度情景的影响。模型输出用于估计不同适宜性水平的区域，这些区域将因建模的聚落扩展而丢失。2038 年的定居区面积在低密度情景下将占案例研究总面积的 29%，但在高密度情景下仅占 19%。与低密度场景相比，高密度方案只需要将三分之一的农业用地转变为定居区。定居点开发将导致适合种植重要出口产品、高营养价值和进口替代产品的土地流失更多。情景方法可以支持定居点扩张的可持续区域规划，从而保护城郊地区宝贵的农田，并有助于建设撒哈拉以南非洲城市地区的战略规划能力。