ABSTRACT The nature of risk needs to be more clearly understood. Risk management could be tightened as a discipline, particularly by adopting an underlying foundation of systems thinking. Risk management, even when well done, has inherent limitations, and these should be well understood, particularly those arising from modelling, completeness, correlation effects, and the often-great uncertainties in estimates of both likelihood and consequence. Modelling is centrally important: both this and risk must be intimately related to decision-making. A clear understanding of this connection is essential to sound work in the discipline.

中文翻译：

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风险及其风险：DG Carmichael 对“风险——评论”的讨论

摘要 需要更清楚地了解风险的性质。风险管理可以作为一门学科来加强，特别是通过采用系统思维的基础。风险管理，即使做得很好，也有其固有的局限性，应该很好地理解这些局限性，尤其是那些由建模、完整性、相关性影响以及可能性和后果估计中经常存在的巨大不确定性引起的局限性。建模至关重要：这和风险都必须与决策密切相关。清楚地了解这种联系对于该学科的良好工作至关重要。