ABSTRACT Risk methods are powerful and versatile, but they have limitations and subtle traps. The paper explores the nature of risk. There are three main difficulties. First, there is a problem with quality and completeness of information. Lack of precise information means that likelihood and consequences have to be estimated, so the information is vulnerable to biases: some are explored. Secondly, there is a serious problem of completeness in risk models, where omissions can lead to serious consequences. Unexpected events, sometimes called ‘black swans’, abound. Thirdly, the conjunction of very small probabilities and major consequences can lead to unreliable and dubious results. Applications areas considered are structural engineering, project management and risk management generally. There are situations where a resilience approach is preferable to risk.

中文翻译：

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风险方法的局限性

摘要 风险方法功能强大且用途广泛，但它们具有局限性和微妙的陷阱。该论文探讨了风险的本质。主要有三个困难。一是信息质量和完整性存在问题。缺乏精确信息意味着必须估计可能性和后果，因此信息容易受到偏见的影响：有些是被探索的。其次，风险模型存在严重的完整性问题，遗漏可能导致严重后果。意外事件，有时被称为“黑天鹅”，比比皆是。第三，极小概率和重大后果的结合会导致不可靠和可疑的结果。考虑的应用领域一般是结构工程、项目管理和风险管理。