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CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
Canadian Water Resources Journal ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-04 , DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2018.1537812
Benita Y. Tam 1 , Kit Szeto 1 , Barrie Bonsal 2 , Greg Flato 3 , Alex J. Cannon 3 , Robin Rong 3
Affiliation  

Drought projections on seasonal to annual time scales are presented for Canada over the twenty-first century, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results make use of bias-corrected temperature and precipitation projections from 29 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and include three different forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Large differences in projected drought changes are observed among different regions. On the annual time scale, southwestern Canada and the Prairies may experience an increase in drying under a warmer climate. On the other hand, coastal regions, including northern Canada, the northwest Pacific coast and the Atlantic region, show a small increase in wetness. Winter and spring SPEI results depict an increase in wetting, reflecting the projected country-wide winter and spring precipitation increases under climate change. For the most part, autumn and summer show increases in drying. The largest relative changes in both summer drying and winter wetting were found over northern regions, but the offsetting seasonal effects typically balance out to yield various degrees of wetting on the annual scale for this region. The projected drought responses are relatively modest in the weak forcing scenario (RCP2.6) for most Canadian regions. In addition, even for regions most affected, a marked increase in surface water deficit might not occur until the second half of this century. Inter-model variation (a crude measure of projection uncertainty) typically increases with forcing intensity and lead time, and is generally greater in northern and western Canada.



中文翻译:

基于标准降水蒸散指数的加拿大CMIP5干旱预测

根据标准降水蒸散指数(SPEI),提出了加拿大在二十一世纪的季节性至年度时间尺度的干旱预测。结果利用了参与耦合模型比较项目第5阶段(CMIP5)的29个全球气候模型的偏差校正后的温度和降水预测,并包括了三种不同的强迫情景(RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5)。在不同地区之间,预计的干旱变化差异很大。在每年的时间尺度上,加拿大西南部和大草原地区在温暖的气候下可能会出现干燥增加的情况。另一方面,包括加拿大北部,西北太平洋海岸和大西洋地区在内的沿海地区的湿度略有增加。SPEI的冬季和春季结果表明润湿性增加,这反映了预计的全国性冬季和春季降水在气候变化下的增加。在大多数情况下,秋季和夏季显示出干燥的增加。在北部地区,夏季干燥和冬季润湿性的最大相对变化均在北部地区发现,但是抵消性的季节性影响通常会在该地区的年尺度上产生不同程度的润湿性。在大多数加拿大地区,在弱强迫情景(RCP2.6)下,预计的干旱响应相对较小。此外,即使对于受影响最严重的地区,直到本世纪下半叶也可能不会出现地表水短缺的明显增加。模型间的变化(一种粗略的预测不确定性指标)通常会随着强迫强度和提前期而增加,

更新日期:2018-12-04
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