Potential intensity (PI), an upper thermodynamic limit of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, is a useful index in TC statistical forecasting. This study evaluated the relationship between the current intensity of TCs and four PI indexes calculated with different sea surface indicators over the Western North Pacific (WNP) from 2009 to 2016. To mirror the degree of sea cooling caused by TCs, three sea surface temperature (SST) indicators (pre‐SST, 80 m depth mean sea temperature, and dynamic mixed mean sea temperature) were compared with real‐time SST obtained from HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) data. The results showed that four versions of PI all overestimated the current intensity of developing TCs. In contrast, when a TC at its strongest or in its weakening stages in a favorable atmospheric environment, pre‐sea conditions were strongly correlated with TC intensity. For strong TCs, the ocean‐coupled PI index was best able to describe TC intensity.

中文翻译：

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北太平洋西部热带气旋潜在强度指数的统计比较

潜在强度（PI）是热带气旋（TC）强度的热力学上限，是进行TC统计预报的有用指标。这项研究评估了TC的当前强度与从2009年至2016年在北太平洋西部（WNP）上使用不同海平面指标计算出的四个PI指数之间的关系。为反映TC造成的海冷程度，三个海面温度（ SST）指标（SST之前，80 m深度平均海温和动态混合平均海温）与从混合坐标海洋模型（HYCOM）数据获得的实时SST进行了比较。结果表明，四个版本的PI都高估了正在开发的TC的当前强度。相反，如果TC在有利的大气环境中处于最强或处于弱化阶段，临海条件与TC强度密切相关。对于强TC，海洋耦合PI指数最能描述TC强度。