An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system,Atmospheric Science Letters

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Atmos. Sci. Lett. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

An evaluation of tropical cyclone forecast in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin with AROME‐Indian Ocean convection‐permitting numerical weather predicting system
Atmospheric Science Letters ( IF 3 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-01 , DOI: 10.1002/asl.950
Olivier Bousquet ₁ , David Barbary ₂ , Soline Bielli ₁ , Selim Kebir ₁ , Laure Raynaud ₃ , Sylvie Malardel ₁ , Ghislain Faure ₃

Affiliation

In order to contribute to ongoing efforts on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, a new, convection-permitting, limited-area coupled model called AROME-Indian Ocean (AROME-IO) was deployed in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin (SWIO) in April 2016. The skill of this numerical weather predicting system for TC prediction is evaluated against its coupling model (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting-Integrated Forecasting System [ECMWF-IFS]) using 120-hr reforecasts of 11 major storms that developed in this area over TC seasons 2017-2018 and 2018-2019. Results show that AROME-IO generally provides significantly better performance than IFS for intensity (maximum wind) and structure (wind extensions, radius of maximum wind) forecasts at all lead times, with similar performance in terms of trajectories. The performance of a prototype, 12-member ensemble prediction system (EPS), of AROME-IO is also evaluated on the case of TC Fakir (April 2018), a storm characterized by an extremely low predictability in global deterministic and ensemble models. AROME-IO EPS is shown to significantly improve the predictability of the system with two scenarios being produced: a most probable one (~66%), which follows the prediction of AROME-IO, and a second one (~33%) that closely matches reality. K E Y W O R D S ensemble forecasting, mesoscale modeling, ocean-atmosphere coupling, tropical cyclones, Southwest Indian Ocean

中文翻译：

AROME-印度洋对流数值天气预报系统对西南印度洋海盆热带气旋预报的评价

为了促进正在进行的热带气旋 (TC) 预报工作，4 月份在西南印度洋盆地 (SWIO) 部署了一种新的、允许对流的有限区域耦合模型 AROME-印度洋 (AROME-IO) 2016. 该数值天气预报系统用于 TC 预测的技能根据其耦合模型（欧洲中期天气预报中心 - 综合预报系统 [ECMWF-IFS]）使用在此开发的 11 个主要风暴的 120 小时重新预测进行评估TC 季节 2017-2018 和 2018-2019 的面积。结果表明，在所有提前期，在强度（最大风）和结构（风延伸、最大风半径）预测方面，AROME-IO 通常提供比 IFS 更好的性能，在轨迹方面具有相似的性能。原型机的性能，AROME-IO 的 12 人集合预测系统 (EPS) 也在 TC Fakir（2018 年 4 月）的情况下进行了评估，该风暴的特点是在全球确定性和集合模型中的可预测性极低。AROME-IO EPS 显示出显着提高了系统的可预测性，并产生了两种情景：一种最有可能的情景 (~66%)，它遵循 AROME-IO 的预测，第二个 (~33%) 接近符合现实。关键词集合预报, 中尺度模拟, 海洋-大气耦合, 热带气旋, 西南印度洋 AROME-IO EPS 显示出显着提高了系统的可预测性，并产生了两种情景：一种最有可能 (~66%)，它遵循 AROME-IO 的预测，第二个 (~33%) 密切符合现实。关键词集合预报, 中尺度模拟, 海洋-大气耦合, 热带气旋, 西南印度洋 AROME-IO EPS 显示出显着提高了系统的可预测性，并产生了两种情景：一种最有可能 (~66%)，它遵循 AROME-IO 的预测，第二个 (~33%) 密切符合现实。关键词集合预报, 中尺度模拟, 海洋-大气耦合, 热带气旋, 西南印度洋

更新日期：2020-03-01

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南

全部期刊列表>>