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Uncertainty of the Linear Trend in the Zonal SST Gradient Across the Equatorial Pacific Since 1881
Atmosphere-Ocean ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2019-01-01 , DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2018.1558044
Chan Zhang 1 , Tao Lian 1 , Youmin Tang 2 , Jun Ying 1 , Junde Li 1
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT The change in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (ZSSTG) across the equatorial Pacific plays an important role in the global climate system. However, there has not yet been a consensual conclusion about the changing ZSSTG at either a short-term (from 20 to 90 years) or a long-term time scale (longer than 90 years) in the literature. In this study, the uncertainty of the trend in ZSSTG for different sub-periods since 1881 was examined using four interpolated datasets and four un-interpolated datasets. It was found that the trend in ZSSTG on the short-term time scale could be significantly influenced by internal variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. On the long-term time scale, the sign of the ZSSTG trend depends on the dataset used. In particular, it was not possible to draw a uniform conclusion about the secular trends in ZSSTG in recent history, given the high sensitivity of the ZSSTG trends to the period, dataset, and regions used to calculate the trends. Our results imply that it may not be possible to detect the response of ZSSTG to global warming until a longer data record becomes available in the future.

中文翻译:

1881年以来赤道太平洋纬向海温梯度线性趋势的不确定性

摘要 赤道太平洋纬向海面温度梯度(ZSSTG)的变化在全球气候系统中起着重要作用。然而,文献中还没有关于短期(从 20 到 90 年)或长期时间尺度(超过 90 年)改变 ZSSTG 的一致结论。在这项研究中,使用四个内插数据集和四个非内插数据集检查了自 1881 年以来不同子时期 ZSSTG 趋势的不确定性。研究发现,短期时间尺度上 ZSSTG 的趋势可能受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和太平洋年代际涛动等内部变率的显着影响。在长期时间尺度上,ZSSTG 趋势的符号取决于所使用的数据集。特别是,鉴于 ZSSTG 趋势对用于计算趋势的时期、数据集和区域的高度敏感性,不可能对近代历史上 ZSSTG 的长期趋势得出统一的结论。我们的结果意味着,在未来更长的数据记录可用之前,可能无法检测 ZSSTG 对全球变暖的响应。
更新日期:2019-01-01
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