Abstract Intervention experiments using the Coupled Forecast System model, version 2 (CFSv2), have been performed in which various Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) evolutions were added to the model’s internally generated heating: Slow Repeated Cycles, Slow Single Cycle, Fast Repeated Cycles, and Fast Single Cycle. In each experiment, one of these specified MJO evolutions of tropical diabatic heating was added in multiple ensemble reforecasts of boreal winter (1 November to 31 March for 31 winters: 1980–2010). Since in each experiment, multiple re-forecasts were made with the identical heating evolution added, predictable component analysis is used to identify modes with the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Traditional MJO-phase analysis of total model heating (dominated by internally generated heating) shows that the MJO-related heating structure compares well with heating estimated from observed fast and slow episodes; however, the model heating is larger by a factor of two. The evolution of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes indicates a clear response due to the added heating, with a robust increase in the frequency of occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−) after the heating crosses into the Pacific and a somewhat less robust increase in the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+) following Indian Ocean heating. In the Fast Cycle experiments, the model response is somewhat muted compared with the Slow Cycle experiments. The Scandinavian Blocking regime becomes more frequent prior to the NAO− regime. The two leading modes in the predictable component analysis of 300 hPa height (Z300), synoptic scale feedback (DZ300), and planetary wave diabatic heating in all experiments form an oscillatory pair with high statistical significance. The oscillatory pair represents the cyclic response to the particular MJO signal (Fast or Slow, Single, or Repeated Cycles) in each case. The period is about 64 days for the Slow Cycle and 36 days for the Fast Cycle, consistent with the imposed periods. The time series of one of the leading modes of Z300 is highly anti-correlated with the frequency of occurrence of the NAO– in the Repeated Cycle experiments. A clear cycle involving the Z300 and DZ300 leading modes is identified.

中文翻译：

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欧洲-大西洋环流对热带加热的 Madden-Julian 振荡循环的响应：耦合 GCM 干预实验

摘要 使用耦合预测系统模型第 2 版 (CFSv2) 进行了干预实验，其中将各种 Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) 演化添加到模型内部生成的加热中：慢速重复循环、慢速单循环、快速重复循环，和快速单周期。在每个实验中，这些指定的热带非绝热加热 MJO 演变之一被添加到北方冬季（11 月 1 日至 3 月 31 日，共 31 个冬季：1980-2010 年）的多次集合重新预测中。由于在每个实验中都进行了多次重新预测，并添加了相同的加热演化，因此使用可预测的成分分析来识别具有最高信噪比的模式。总模型加热（以内部产生的加热为主）的传统 MJO 阶段分析表明，与 MJO 相关的加热结构与根据观察到的快速和慢速事件估计的加热相比很好；然而，模型加热要大两倍。欧洲-大西洋环流体系的演变表明，由于增加的热量，出现了明显的反应，在热量进入太平洋后，北大西洋涛动 (NAO-) 负相的发生频率显着增加，并且在一定程度上在印度洋加热之后，NAO (NAO+) 的​​正相位增加不太强劲。在快速循环实验中，与慢速循环实验相比，模型响应有些减弱。斯堪的纳维亚阻塞机制在 NAO− 机制之前变得更加频繁。所有实验中 300 hPa 高度 (Z300)、天气尺度反馈 (DZ300) 和行星波非绝热加热的可预测成分分析中的两种主要模式形成具有高统计显着性的振荡对。振荡对代表在每种情况下对特定 MJO 信号（快速或慢速、单次或重复循环）的循环响应。慢周期的周期约为 64 天，快周期的周期约为 36 天，与强制周期一致。Z300 的一种领先模式的时间序列与重复循环实验中 NAO– 的出现频率高度反相关。确定了涉及 Z300 和 DZ300 领先模式的清晰循环。和行星波非绝热加热在所有实验中形成具有高统计显着性的振荡对。振荡对代表在每种情况下对特定 MJO 信号（快速或慢速、单次或重复循环）的循环响应。慢周期的周期约为 64 天，快周期的周期约为 36 天，与强制周期一致。Z300 的一种领先模式的时间序列与重复循环实验中 NAO– 的出现频率高度反相关。确定了涉及 Z300 和 DZ300 领先模式的清晰循环。和行星波非绝热加热在所有实验中形成具有高统计显着性的振荡对。振荡对代表在每种情况下对特定 MJO 信号（快速或慢速、单次或重复循环）的循环响应。慢周期的周期约为 64 天，快周期的周期约为 36 天，与强制周期一致。Z300 的一种领先模式的时间序列与重复循环实验中 NAO– 的出现频率高度反相关。确定了涉及 Z300 和 DZ300 领先模式的清晰循环。慢周期的周期约为 64 天，快周期的周期约为 36 天，与强制周期一致。Z300 的一种领先模式的时间序列与重复循环实验中 NAO– 的出现频率高度反相关。确定了涉及 Z300 和 DZ300 领先模式的清晰循环。慢周期的周期约为 64 天，快周期的周期约为 36 天，与强制周期一致。Z300 的一种领先模式的时间序列与重复循环实验中 NAO– 的出现频率高度反相关。确定了涉及 Z300 和 DZ300 领先模式的清晰循环。