Abstract In recent years, an increased interest in farmland globally has led to the emergence of many land-based investment projects. Although most projects enter the production stage, a significant number also ends in failure. This paper asks why land-based investment projects fail. This is a crucial question as failed investment projects are unlikely to have any positive impacts on the host regions. I develop a conceptual framework to understand the determinants of failure and then use project-level data to empirically test these potential determinants drawing on survival analysis. I find that failure occurs globally but is concentrated on the African continent, with some countries exhibiting a particularly high risk of project failure. In addition, larger projects, projects growing agrofuels, and projects targeting land formerly used by smallholders or pastoralists are more likely to fail. In contrast, projects that involve domestic investors or take place in countries with better infrastructure are less likely to fail. The findings on the impact of host-country institutions on project failure are ambiguous and highlight the need for more localized institutional variables to better understand the role of institutions for project failure.

中文翻译：

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注定失败？为什么一些陆上投资项目失败

摘要 近年来，随着全球对农田的兴趣日益浓厚，许多陆上投资项目应运而生。尽管大多数项目进入了生产阶段，但也有相当一部分项目以失败告终。本文探讨了为什么陆上投资项目会失败。这是一个至关重要的问题，因为失败的投资项目不太可能对东道地区产生任何积极影响。我开发了一个概念框架来理解失败的决定因素，然后使用项目级数据根据生存分析对这些潜在的决定因素进行实证测试。我发现失败发生在全球范围内，但集中在非洲大陆，一些国家的项目失败风险特别高。此外，更大的项目，种植农业燃料的项目，以小农或牧民以前使用的土地为目标的项目更有可能失败。相比之下，涉及国内投资者或在基础设施较好的国家进行的项目不太可能失败。关于东道国制度对项目失败的影响的研究结果是模棱两可的，并强调需要更多本地化的制度变量来更好地理解制度对项目失败的作用。