The nexus of innovation and trade is commonly analyzed in terms of technological gaps and market‐share gains for innovating countries. However, this relationship may not hold under certain circumstances – as in the case of genetically modified organisms. Based on a firm heterogeneity model, this study investigates the role of technological gaps and demand lags in the case of international trade in goods after the emergence of a ‘highly‐scrutinized’ or ‘distrusted’ technology. The demand lag may be understood as the difference between techniques employed by producers in exporting countries and levels of acceptance or compatibility in destination markets. Likewise, a technological gap is the difference between techniques employed by late‐movers and those used by leading countries. By means of a gravity equation, we empirically estimate these effects based on the bilateral trade of soybeans between 1995 and 2012. Results indicate that both technological gaps and demand lags reduce trade by similar magnitudes. Thus, producing countries should carefully weigh the negative effects of falling behind and of approving varieties not approved for importation in destination markets. [EconLit citations: F12, F51, O33]

中文翻译：

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转基因生物、技术差距、需求滞后和贸易方面的创新

创新与贸易的关系通常根据创新国家的技术差距和市场份额收益进行分析。然而，这种关系在某些情况下可能不成立——例如转基因生物。本研究基于企业异质性模型，研究了在“高度审查”或“不信任”技术出现后，技术差距和需求滞后在国际货物贸易中的作用。需求滞后可以理解为出口国生产商采用的技术与目的地市场的接受程度或兼容性之间的差异。同样，技术差距是后发国家采用的技术与领先国家采用的技术之间的差异。通过重力方程，我们根据 1995 年至 2012 年间大豆的双边贸易对这些影响进行了实证估计。结果表明，技术差距和需求滞后都以相似的幅度减少了贸易。因此，生产国应仔细权衡落后和批准未获准在目的地市场进口的品种的负面影响。[EconLit 引文：F12、F51、O33]