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Hazardous weather affecting European airports: Climatological estimates of situations with limited visibility, thunderstorm, low-level wind shear and snowfall from ERA5
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100243
Mateusz Taszarek , Sebastian Kendzierski , Natalia Pilguj

The consistently growing demand for airline transportation has resulted in increased air traffic and air operations in airports across the world. According to the International Air Transport Association, forecasts assume that in the year 2036 about 7.8 billion passengers will travel using air transport. In Europe, it is estimated that 16.2 million flights will take place in 2040, 53% more than in 2017. One of the crucial factors that significantly affect air transportation is the weather. In this article, ERA5 reanalysis and a 40-year timeframe (1979–2018) are used to construct the European climatology of environmental proxies associated with hazardous weather conditions causing disruptions in airline traffic. These include situations with limited visibility, thunderstorm, low-level wind shear, and snowfall. Results indicate that northern Europe and mountain zones are the most often affected by unfavorable weather conditions, while southern Europe is the least affected. Winter has the highest estimated number of situations with low-level wind shear and snowfall conditions. Situations with limited visibility are the most frequent in autumn and winter while thunderstorms are the main threat during summer over continental Europe and autumn in the Mediterranean area. Long-term changes of the analyzed proxies indicate that situations with low-level wind shear and snowfall are becoming less frequent while the number of thunderstorms generally increases, particularly over northern, central and south-central Europe. A decrease of situations with limited visibility is observed over majority of Europe with the exception of Scandinavia and parts of central Europe.



中文翻译:

影响欧洲机场的危险天气:ERA5造成的能见度有限,雷暴,低风切变和降雪情况的气候学估计

对航空运输的需求不断增长,导致全球机场的航空运输和空中业务增加。根据国际航空运输协会的预测,到2036年,约有78亿乘客将乘坐航空运输。在欧洲,据估计,到2040年将有1,620万次航班飞行,比2017年增加53%。天气是影响航空运输的重要因素之一。在本文中,使用ERA5重新分析和40年的时间范围(1979-2018年)来构建与危险天气条件相关的欧洲代理环境气候,从而造成航空公司交通中断。这些情况包括能见度有限,雷暴,低风切变和降雪的情况。结果表明,北欧和山区最常受到不利天气条件的影响,而南欧受影响最小。在低风切变和降雪条件下,冬季的估计数量最多。能见度有限的情况在秋季和冬季最为常见,而雷暴是夏季欧洲大陆和地中海地区秋季的主要威胁。所分析代理的长期变化表明,低风切变和降雪的情况越来越少,而雷暴的数量普遍增加,特别是在中北部和中欧。

更新日期:2020-01-28
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