Abstract The Indian telecom sector, post-liberalization, is characterized by the heavy dependence on the imports of telecom products, even though several policy initiatives have been taken by the government during the last three decades to reduce import dependence. This study investigates to what extent the policy measures adopted after 2012 have impacted the import, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and domestic manufacturing performance in the telecom sector. A series of non-linear time series techniques are employed to capture the complex dynamics among these variables. The outcomes of the study suggest that the import, FDI, and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the telecom sector share non-linear relationships that exhibit regime shifts, time-varying behavior, and asymmetry. The study highlights that the FDI drives the import and, in normal circumstances, FDI and imports have the potential to influence IIP in the telecom sector in the long-run. The findings indicate that the policy measures adopted by the government are justifiable as the import substitution strategies have the potential to get transmitted to the telecom sector in the future. Based on the empirical findings, the study proposes a set of policy measures, which should help the sector to grow intrinsically while lowering the import dependence.

中文翻译：

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印度电信行业进口替代战略评估：非线性动态的实证证据

摘要 自由化后的印度电信部门的特点是严重依赖电信产品的进口，尽管政府在过去三十年中采取了多项政策举措来减少进口依赖。本研究调查了 2012 年之后采取的政策措施在多大程度上影响了电信行业的进口、外国直接投资 (FDI) 和国内制造业绩效。一系列非线性时间序列技术被用来捕捉这些变量之间的复杂动态。研究结果表明，电信部门的进口、外国直接投资和工业生产指数 (IIP) 具有非线性关系，表现出政权更替、随时间变化的行为和不对称性。该研究强调，外国直接投资推动了进口，在正常情况下，从长远来看，FDI 和进口有可能影响电信行业的 IIP。研究结果表明，政府采取的政策措施是合理的，因为进口替代战略有可能在未来传导到电信行业。根据实证结果，该研究提出了一系列政策措施，以帮助该部门实现内在增长，同时降低对进口的依赖。