Abstract The operation of infrastructure systems is a long-lasting managerial endeavour in which decision makers need to adapt to a changing environment and new events that result from an uncertain future. One of the essential aspects of infrastructure operation is maintenance, which guarantees acceptable operation standards for this kind of projects, which are normally subjected to several deterioration mechanisms. This paper discusses the concept of flexibility in maintenance planning for infrastructure systems and presents a model that allows to capture the value of flexible decisions in the context of sequential maintenance decisions. First, it presents an approach for addressing the sequential decision-making process of maintenance in infrastructure through an application of stochastic programming. Then, it describes and formulates the valuation of maintained systems under uncertainty through Real Options. Finally, the proposed methodology is studied through an illustrative example that shows the advantages of the proposed approach and highlights the role of flexibility in maintenance planning.

中文翻译：

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基础设施系统维护策略中灵活性和顺序决策的价值

摘要 基础设施系统的运行是一项长期的管理工作，决策者需要在其中适应不断变化的环境和不确定的未来导致的新事件。基础设施运营的重要方面之一是维护，这保证了此类项目的可接受运营标准，这些项目通常会受到多种恶化机制的影响。本文讨论了基础设施系统维护计划中灵活性的概念，并提出了一个模型，该模型允许在顺序维护决策的背景下捕捉灵活决策的价值。首先，它提出了一种通过应用随机编程来解决基础设施维护的顺序决策过程的方法。然后，它通过实物期权描述和制定了在不确定情况下维护系统的估值。最后，通过一个说明性示例来研究所提出的方法，该示例展示了所提出方法的优点并突出了灵活性在维护计划中的作用。