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Climate change will drive mammal species loss and biotic homogenization in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot
Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2019-03-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2019.02.001
José Hidasi-Neto , Daiany Caroline Joner , Fernando Resende , Lara de Macedo Monteiro , Frederico Valtuille Faleiro , Rafael Dias Loyola , Marcus Vinicius Cianciaruso

Anthropogenic climate change has been shown to be one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity. However, few studies have considered its effects on whole communities. Here, using ecological niche models (ENM) and projected future climate scenarios, we analyzed how these environmental changes could promote reductions in the alpha and beta taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversities of mammals in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot. We found that, on average, species richness tends to decrease in most Cerrado areas under future climate scenarios. However, this pattern is not uniform throughout the biome. Overall, southern Brazilian Cerrado may become biotically homogenized – through the extinction of native specialists and expansion of exotic generalists – in the near future, while the rest of biome may become very heterogeneous in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional aspects. This scenario is very problematic considering that this region has been highly transformed and fragmented by human activities in the past. Based on our ENM approach of species inhabiting present Cerrado, we provided a more accurate analysis about the effects of anthropogenic and/or natural processes at large scales on the communities for this endangered Biodiversity Hotspot. This information could represent invaluable tool to guide future establishment of new and efficient conservation efforts.



中文翻译:

气候变化将推动塞拉多生物多样性热点地区的哺乳动物物种丧失和生物同质化

人为造成的气候变化已被证明是对生物多样性最普遍的威胁之一。但是,很少有研究考虑其对整个社区的影响。在这里,我们使用生态位模型(ENM)和预测的未来气候情景,分析了这些环境变化如何促进降低Cerrado生物多样性热点中哺乳动物的alpha和beta分类,系统发育和功能多样性。我们发现,在未来的气候情景下,大多数塞拉多地区的物种丰富度平均呈下降趋势。但是,这种模式在整个生物群落中并不统一。总体而言,在不久的将来,由于本地专家的灭绝和外来通才的扩展,巴西南部的塞拉多可能会在生物上同质化,而其他生物群落在分类,系统发育和功能方面可能会变得非常不同。考虑到该地区过去已被人类活动高度改造和分散,这种情况非常棘手。基于我们目前在塞拉多(Cerrado)栖息的物种的ENM方法,我们对这一濒临灭绝的生物多样性热点的大规模人为和/或自然过程对社区的影响提供了更准确的分析。这些信息可能是指导未来建立新的有效保护工作的宝贵工具。我们针对这个濒临灭绝的生物多样性热点地区的大规模人为和/或自然过程对社区的影响提供了更准确的分析。这些信息可能是指导未来建立新的有效保护工作的宝贵工具。我们针对这个濒临灭绝的生物多样性热点地区的大规模人为和/或自然过程对社区的影响提供了更准确的分析。这些信息可能是指导未来建立新的有效保护工作的宝贵工具。

更新日期:2019-03-14
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