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Assessing the effectiveness of revised performance standards for Salmonella contamination of comminuted poultry
Microbial Risk Analysis ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2019-05-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2019.05.002
Eric D. Ebel , Michael S. Williams

Revised Salmonella performance standards for ground chicken and turkey were chosen based on a risk assessment model that predicted a 25% reduction in occurrence of human exposures to Salmonella-contaminated comminuted products following implementation of the standards.

To assess the validity of the risk assessment model and its predictions, this study uses a Bayesian framework to compare prior and posterior distributions for model parameters. Prior distributions are informed by 24 months of data collected before the performance standards were implemented. The posterior distributions are generated using a sampling-importance resampling algorithm based on 36 months of data collected after implementing the standards.

For the comminuted turkey model parameters, prior and posterior distribution comparisons suggest that the 25% reduction target was accomplished. In contrast, the results for comminuted chicken suggest that the actual reduction in Salmonella was somewhat less than the 25% target. For both commodities, the analysis does not invalidate the risk assessment model, although it does suggest areas for modification in the future.



中文翻译:

评估修订的绩效标准对粉碎禽肉沙门氏菌的影响

根据风险评估模型选择了经修订的沙门氏菌和火鸡沙门氏菌性能标准,该模型预测标准实施后,人类接触沙门氏菌污染的粉碎产品的可能性将降低25%。

为了评估风险评估模型及其预测的有效性,本研究使用贝叶斯框架比较模型参数的先验分布和后验分布。在实施绩效标准之前,将通过24个月的数据来收集先前的分布情况。后验分布是根据实施标准后36个月收集的数据,使用采样重要性重采样算法生成的。

对于粉碎的火鸡模型参数,事前和事后分布的比较表明,减少了25%的目标得以实现。相反,粉碎鸡的结果表明沙门氏菌的实际减少量略低于目标值25%。对于这两种商品,该分析都没有建议风险评估模型无效,尽管它确实建议了将来需要修改的地方。

更新日期:2019-05-23
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