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Evaluating a mixed abiotic–biotic model for the distribution and host contact rates of an arthropod vector of pathogens: An example with Ixodes ricinus (Ixodidae)
Microbial Risk Analysis ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2018.12.001
Agustín Estrada-Peña , Amie Adkin , Silvia Bertolini , Charlotte Cook , Maria Ines Crescio , Vladimir Grosbois , Verity Horigan , Sophie Ip , Anaïs Leger , Gianluca Mastrantonio , Cristiana Maurella , Marco de Nardi , Giuseppe Ru , Robin Simons , Emma Snary , Katharina Staerk , Rachel Taylor , Graham C. Smith

Modelling the range of prominent vectors of pathogens is a common technique used for planning surveys, building exposure assessment estimations or addressing the impact of future climate scenarios. In most cases the recorded distribution of a target species is used together several environmental variables to capture its potential distribution, ignoring the availability of adequate hosts for the arthropod. In this study we used satellite-recorded, Fourier transformed, environmental variables of ground temperature and vegetation (NDVI) and a large dataset of records of the tick Ixodes ricinus and their hosts. The aim is to evaluate the influence of the contact rates of the ticks with the different hosts and how they impact on the raw, environmental-based distribution of the tick. These effects may alter the estimations of the distribution of the tick under future climate scenarios. This study demonstrated that the relative contribution of the hosts supporting the feeding of the tick life stages dramatically altered the expected distribution of the tick. In the study case, results support that both Passeriformes (Aves) and Rodentia-Soricomorpha contribute in different ways to the colonization of the tick along a large latitudinal gradient. However, Artiodactyla are the main supporters of the tick and enhance its presence in the fringe of its distribution area. Thus, complete data on the distribution of each host contributing to the tick's life cycle and their relative importance for the tick, should be included in the assessment of exposure by arthropods. Other results of the study suggested that more information could be obtained exploring the association of the arthropod to the variables in the environmental niche, instead of the classic approach based on a crude evaluation on the geographical space (maps).



中文翻译:

评价病原体节肢动物媒介的分布和宿主接触率的非生物-生物混合模型:以蓖麻Ixodes ricinus)(Ixodidae)为例

对病原体主要媒介的范围进行建模是用于计划调查,建立暴露评估估计或解决未来气候情景影响的常用技术。在大多数情况下,记录下来的目标物种分布与几个环境变量一起用于捕获其潜在分布,而忽略了节肢动物足够宿主的可利用性。在这项研究中,我们使用卫星记录,傅立叶变换,地面温度和植被(NDVI)和大数据集的记录的环境变量蜱硬蜱蜱和他们的主人。目的是评估the与不同寄主的接触率的影响,以及它们如何影响基于环境的environmental的原始分布。这些影响可能会改变未来气候情景下the的分布估计。这项研究表明,支持the生活阶段喂养的宿主的相对贡献极大地改变了the的预期分布。在研究案例中,结果支持Passeriformes(Aves)和Rodentia-Soricomorpha沿较大的纬度梯度以不同的方式促进tick的定殖。但是,Artiodactyla是the的主要支持者,并增强了其在分布区域边缘的存在。从而,关于节肢动物生命周期的各个宿主分布及其对contributing的相对重要性的完整数据,应包括在节肢动物接触评估中。研究的其他结果表明,可以探索更多节肢动物与环境生态位中变量之间的联系,而不是基于对地理空间(地图)进行粗略评估的经典方法。

更新日期:2018-12-05
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